Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, was on Fox Business explaining how the BLS is inflated — a scary thought given how dismal the numbers have been. The basic flaw, says Biderman, are the assumptions baked in about the creation of new companies, which are way too rosy.
Meanwhile, David Rosenberg points to another worrisome aspect of the jobs number.
The fact that initial jobless claims have peaked and rolled over – modestly by
historical standards – tells only half the story which is firings. It is so painfully
obvious from the data what is lacking most, is new hiring, especially in the small
business sector which accounts for half of the job creation in the United
States. The average duration of unemployment rose to 26.2 weeks – a half
year! – from 24.9 weeks in August; the median spiked to 17.3 weeks from 15.4.
It is so difficult now to find a job that a record 36% of the ranks of those
unemployed have been searching with futility now for at least six months. In
“normal” recessions since 1950, this ratio peaked at just over 20%. It is nearly
double that today. In number terms, we are talking about 5.4 million Americans
who have been out of work – but looking – for at least six months. This is
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