US Treasurys are rallying following the October jobs report, which showed that US payrolls added 161,000 nonfarm jobs in October as the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% and wages grew at a 2.8% year-over-year clip. Following the report, there has been talk that the number is good news for Hillary Clinton as it shows solid job growth ahead of next Tuesday’s election, which has historically helped the incumbent party, and that it points to a Fed rate hike in November.
However, not everyone agrees. Fed futures data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December actually slipped to 76% from 78% ahead of the data. Additionally, US Treasurys have rallied as the number was a bit shy of the 175,000 jobs that economists had expected.
Ahead of the report, the Treasury complex was little changed, but post-data buying has pushed yields down nearly 4 basis points in the belly of the curve. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 10:15 a.m. ET:
- 2-year -1.2 bps at 79.4 bps
- 3-year -1.9 bps at 94.0 bps
- 5-year -3.2 bps at 1.232%
- 7-year -4 bps at 1.540%
- 10-year -3.9 bps at 1.773%
- 30-year -3.6 bps at 2.564%
Traders have been watching current levels closely as yields have been unable to break out above their early-June highs. The 2-year yield has struggled near 90 bps while the 10-year yield has been unable to puncture 1.80%.
Friday’s bid has flattened the yield curve, with the 2-10-year spread tightening about 2 basis points to 98.4 bps.
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