US Treasurys are selling off for a second straight day following the news that Donald Trump will be the 44th President of the United States.
The complex saw an aggressive bid push yields lower by as much as 17 basis points in the belly of the curve as Trump pulled ahead in key battleground states on Tuesday evening, but came under intense selling pressure once it was clear that Trump would indeed win the election.
Yields finished the day up more than 20 basis points at the long end and at their highest level since January as traders began to price in the possibility that Trump’s plan to cut taxes and support for massive infrastructure spending would aewaken the inflationary spirits of the US economy.
Thursday’s selling has been pretty well dispersed with yields up between 4 and 5 bps across much of the curve. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 7:39 a.m. ET:
- 2-year +2.9 bps at 91.9 bps
- 3-year +3.7 bps at 1.151%
- 5-year +4.2 bps at 1.514%
- 7-year +5.1 bps at 1.870%
- 10-year +4.2 bps at 2.092%
- 30-year +4.4 bps at 2.890%
Selling up front has the 2-year yield at it’s highest level since March, and threatening the 1.00% mark for the first time since the week’s following the Fed’s last rate hike in December 2015. Meanwhile, weakness at the long end has both the 10- and 30-year yields at their highest levels since January.
Curve steepening persists with the 2-10-year spread wider at 117 bps.
The recent run up in yields corresponds with speculation the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its upcoming meeting in December. Currently, fed fund futures show an 82.0% probability a 25 bp rate hike will occur at the meeting.
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