The US Treasury complex is under pressure on Wednesday as money continues to move out of safer assets and into riskier ones. Early selling has yields up about 4 basis points in the intermediate part of the curve and at their highest levels in a month. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 9:53 a.m. ET:
- 2-year +1.2 bps @ 1.232%
- 3-year +2.2 bps @ 1.505%
- 5-year +3.5 bps @ 1.968%
- 7-year +4.2 bps @ 2.30%
- 10-year +3.9 bps @ 2.504%
- 30-year +3.5 bps @ 3.084%
Longer-dated Treasury yields climbed nearly 90 basis points in the weeks following the election amid the belief a President Donald Trump would bring back inflation to the US with his protectionist trade policies and plans for massive infrastructure spending.
However, yields put in their highs the day following the Fed’s interest rate, sliding more than 30 bps over the next month. But the “Trump Trade” has reemerged and yields have once again begun to rise (Treasury yields rise as prices fall) as money flows back into riskier assets.
However, the yield curve has yet to steepen, suggesting the bond market doesn’t necessarily believe reflation is coming. The spread between the 5-year and 30-year yield trades at 111.8 bps, holding near its flattest levels since September. It was trading at 129 bps on election night.
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