The US Treasury market is under pressure on Wednesday following a bunch of better than expected data. CPI, retail sales, and Empire manufacturing all topped estimates, causing sellers to continue their recent attack on the complex. The post-data selling is having the biggest impact on the belly of the curve where yields are up more than 5 basis points apiece. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 8:49 a.m. ET:
- 2-year +2.5 bps @ 1.259%
- 3-year +4.0 bps @ 1.571%
- 5-year +5.2 bps @ 2.015%
- 7-year +5.1 bps @ 2.338%
- 10-year +4.9 bps @ 2.518%
- 30-year +4.5 bps @ 3.103%
Wednesday’s selling has run the 2-year yield to its highest point of 2017 as traders price in the possibility of further Fed rate hikes. Currently, the market sees a 42% chance the Fed will hike 25 basis points at its March meeting, according to Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability data.
Yields have been climbing for much of the past two weeks amid more hope of reflation in the US economy. The benchmark 10-year yield is up almost 20 bps since February 8.
On Tuesday, in her Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen warned waiting too long to raise interest rates is ‘unwise’ and could cause a recession. Yellen takes her testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.