The US Treasury complex is rallying on Thursday as money moves out of riskier assets and into safety. Buying has pushed yields down more than 6 basis points in the belly of the curve to their lowest levels since the beginning of December. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 11:21 a.m. ET:
- 2-year -3.2 bps @ 1.153%
- 3-year -4.6 bps @ 1.423%
- 5-year -6.3 bps @ 1.821%
- 7-year-6.5 bps @ 2.119%
- 10-year -6.2 bps @ 2.310%
- 30-year -4.9 bps @ 2.907%
Thursday’s bid is an extension of the Wednesday afternoon’s rally in the complex that developed following President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference since he won the election.
The Treasury complex has seen renewed interest over the past month as traders speculate the sell off that developed on the prospects of Trump bringing back inflation to the United States has gone too far. Longer-dated yields rallied about 90 bps in the weeks following the election as traders began pricing in the potential impact of Trump’s protectionist trade agenda and his plan for massive infrastructure spending.
Typically, the yield curve would steepen if the market believes the US is about to see an uptick in inflation; however, that simply hasn’t been the case. The 5-30-year spread has flattened from 129 bps on election night to its current level of 108 bps. The flattening of the curve has been aided by the Fed hiking rates for just the second time since the financial crisis. It also suggested that it could raise rates three times in 2017 as opposed to its previous estimate of two.
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