The US Treasury complex has come under significant pressure following President Trump’s speech to Congress, which renewed hope of a massive $US1 trillion infrastructure spending plan. Selling has pushed yields up more than 7 basis points in the intermediate part of the curve with the 10-year back up at a two-week high. Here’s a look at the scoreboard as of 11:04 a.m. ET:
- 2-year +2.8bps @ 1.288%
- 3-year +4.6bps @ 1.565%
- 5-year +6.1bps @ 1.991%
- 7-year +7.3bps @ 2.295%
- 10-year +7.2bps @ 2.462%
- 30-year +7.8bps @ 3.073%
Until Trump’s speech, Treasurys had been coming back into favour among traders as worries began to surface that Trump’s proposed stimulus plans would take longer to implement than previously expected and that the stimulus would be less expansionary than first thought.
The benchmark 10-year yield touched a low of 2.31% on February 24, making for the lowest reading in three months. The recent action has caused some concern among market watchers causing Michael Paulenoff, president of Pattern Analytics, to note in a blog post on Tuesday that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, or TBT, an exchange-traded fund whose price is inversely related to bonds, was “fighting for its technical ‘life’ despite positive economic headlines and a roaring stock market.”
For now, it looks likes like TBT longs will live to see another day.