Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a summary of what traders are talking about right now.
Good Morning! S&P Futures touched a fresh all-time high overnight before retreating into the ECB decision at 7:45 today. BOE stands pat – as expected — and there is no consensus for the ECB today — almost a even split between those calling for a cut, and standing pat — We’ve had another decent EU Eco print this AM, with German manufacturing coming in stronger than expected. Germany’s DAX is up 20bp, with trading heavy (30% above average) into the ECB. There is some Ukraine Angst, with Crimera setting a vote to join the Russian Federation — this has Ukraine CDS up slightly, but Russia’s equity market off nearly 2%. Over in Asia, the Nikkei cheered the Yen hitting 2week lows, jumping almost 1.6%. China bounced 30bp, led by Property developers on bullish government comments. The Sensex jumped over 1%, as many investors are viewing thr upcoming elections in positive light. Globally, Financials remain well bid, as do property stocks.
The 10YY is up small, on highs of the session and testing the week’s peaks. We get 2 more clues on the employment picture this AM, but most believe tomorrow’s NFP print will be discounted due to the heavy weather skew during the BLS “reference week”. The € is in rally mode into the ECB, bearing down on 1 week highs. This is driving the DXY down near that “key” 80 level, a tailwind for commodities. Platinum remains bid, due to the South Africa strike situation, but both gold and silver are lower as risk-aversion recedes. The energy complex is mixed, with Natty and Brent up small — while WTI continues to trend red after yesterday’s Distillate inventory build. The commodity to watch today is Hogs — as a virus is spreading through the supply — Hogs have leapt 24% in the last week, the 2nd best performing commodity behind Coffee. We have Challenger Job Data at 7:30 today — The ECB has it’s rate decision at 7:45, followed by a Draghi Presser at 8:30. We have Weekly Claims data and Non-Farm productivity at 8:30, Factory Orders at 10, DOE Natty Gas Data at 10:30, a small POMO at 11, EM watchers will focus on the Brazil Bond Auction at 12, and we have Fed’s Plosser speaking at 1.
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