Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a round up of what has traders chattering right now.
Good Morning! Playing catch up from a week off, and I leave you Weds AM to fly to Seattle to meet with Customers. Market remains quite resilient to Geopolitical factors, as well as a surprisingly hawkish Fed last week as Hilsenrath opines on lower rates for longer despite economic and employment improvements. US Futures are marked 20bp higher, and remain within 1% of all-time highs. Markets are red across the board in Europe in average volume, as Germany’s Manufacturing Data comes in light, knocking the € to session lows. EU Fins are off 1%, and the DAX is down 70bp — Month to date the DAX has underperformed the S&P by almost 5% as investors have run from markets tight to the Ukraine situation. We are seeing a slight rally in Russian Equities, but Ukraine’s FX is taking out 2014 lows as the G7 gathers in the Netherlands to discuss the conflict. We had strong markets in Asia, as China’s latest PMI miss sparks dovish hopes — Shanghai gained 1%, but Japan gained almost 2% in heavy volume as the Yen got hit on risk-taking. Aussie’s market closed green, as China hopes buoyed the Miners — and India’s Sensex hits new Peaks as investors continued to bet on economic revival if Opposition leader Narenda Modi is elected to office.
The US 10YY is higher on the session, but remains just under last week’s peaks and the 100dma. The DXY is approaching 1M highs, making gains against € and Yen — causing a headwind for commodities. Many eyes are on Copper off very small despite the Chinese PMI Miss — it is barely holding above multi-year lows. Haven metals are under pressre, with Gold testing 1M lows, and Silver breaking multiple MAs to the downside. WTI is shrugging off the stronger $US, and gaining back towards a $US100 test as we watch for impact from the closed shipping channel outside of Houston. Brent is flat despite continued angst in Ukraine — and energy investors will focus on headlines from the Howard Weil Energy conference today. We do have a continued bid in the Agriculture complex, with Corn and Wheat taking on over 1% as Ukraine supply concerns mount. Today we will be headline trading off G7 comments — and we will see the Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index at 8:30, Fed’s Stein Speaks at 9, US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45, and the week’s smallest POMO operation at 11.