Stifel Nicolaus’ Dave Lutz has a quick roundup of what traders are chatting about right now:
Good morning! US Futures are starting slightly weaker, as we are a week away from the Crimera vote, and China’s Trade data comes in terrible over the weekend. European shares are mixed, with the DAX still under pressure in decent volume, following Friday’s weakness. This is despite a upshot in EU Fins, gaining 1.5% in decent trade. Shanghai and Hong Kong had led Asian markets lower after Chinese exports slumped sharply, although being distorted on the New Years Holiday – China’s CSI 300 Index fell 3.3% to it’s lowest close in 5 years. The Nikkei lost 1%, despite their GDP coming in lighter than expected, weakening the Yen near 1M lows against the $US. Nikkei futures are up 40bp early this AM. Aussie markets lost 1%, as Mining was the worst-performing sector after the spot price for iron ore hit an eight month low, and Shanghai copper futures plunged to the lowest level since September 2009. Globally, Banks remain strong outperformers, while Mining and Materials shares are solidly in the red.
The 10YY is higher, after bouncing off the 100dma overnight, and now getting upside 50dma. The € is under some pressure, and the DXY is jumping after last week’s smackdown — but remains under the key “80” level. With the stronger $US, we have a headwind for commodities — and many are under sharp pressure due to the Chinese trade data — Copper is off another 2% (Credit fears — Collateral selling), and WTI is off 1.5%. Brent is slightly better as unrest continues in Libya and Syria, but still off 1%. We have continued rhetoric on Ukraine, with Germany saying the Crimera vote will not be recognised, and Russia asserting further control in the region — Russian CDS is up 8% this AM, the biggest sovereign mover on my board. We have a quiet schedule today, with EU Fin Min meeting in Brussels, a decent size POMO at 11, World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates at 12, and Fed’s Evans speaking at 12:40.