Here’s JonesTrading’s Dave Lutz with what traders are buzzing about right now:
Good Morning! The Seas are angry today my friends, with the S&P 500 off over 2% and on a 3-month low — China’s Yuan continues downward spiral as FX reserves collapse, causing Chinese exchanges to stop trading limit down within 30minutesovernight, in a “panicked response to the forex market.” Headlines from Europe/Mid-East are not helping (Iran accuses Saudi warplanes of attacking Iranian embassy in Yemen — Extremist tried to enter a Paris Police station wearing a suicide belt – At Least 50 Police Recruits Killed in ‘Massive’ Libya Bombing). The DAX off 3.5% (and under 10,000) in nearly 2x normal trade, as Miners, energy companies and exporters made the heaviest losses in Europe. UK miners slump to lowest level in 12 years, as copper nears seven-year lows – Anglo off 10%, Glencore 6% at one point. Over in Asia, Shenzen off 8% – Shanghai 7% – smacking every major market into the Red. Japan lost 2.5%, Aussie 2.2% and India touched a 52week low before bouncing slightly. All Emerging Markets look solidly in the red.
Haven trades of gold, the Japanese yen and “core” government bonds are en fuego early, with the US 10YY below 2.14% and firmly under the 200dma. The Euro has a sharp bid to it as Eurozone unemployment falls to lowest since 2011 and German factory orders staged a surprise surge — While $/Yen has collapsed under 118 in early hours. Keep an eye on US High Yield, which has been resilient so far in 2016 but HYG is marked 50bp lower early this AM. As the market awaits the US Jobs Reporttomorrow. The current implied probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the March FOMC meeting is down to 36.8% this morning (versus a reading of 50.8% on 12/31). The Oil complex is under sharp pressure again, losing over 3% as Chinese devaluation dampens demand, while Saudi-Iran headlines show cooperation on output is nowhere to be expected. Only Natty Gas is trading higher, as extreme cold bids up the complex 1% ahead of Inventory data later this AM. Metals are mixed, with Gold seeing haven buying push it to $1100 — while Copper, Nickel and Zinc are all whacked for 3%+
At 7:30 this AM, we get Challenger Job Cuts, followed by Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30. At 8:45, Fed’s Lacker (nonvoter) Delivers Economic Outlook. At 10:30 we get the Natty gas Inventory data, followed by the Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index at Noon. At 2:15 Fed’s Evans (Alternate) Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy. In Washington, President Obama participates in a live CNN town hall at George Mason University on reducing gun violence in America at 8am, while at10:30 EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy addresses Council on Foreign Relations on implications of the Paris climate summit agreement. Throughout the session, Several retailers will be updating their SSS Metrics for December.
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