Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a roundup of what traders are chatting about ahead of the U.S. market open:
Good Morning! US Futures have a upbeat tone, with the E-Minis up 30bp into Expiration today as Lipper reports equity fund inflows of $US3.6B, up 50% w/w. This follows strength overseas, where the DAX is nearing +1%, and EU Stoxx back on 6Y highs. EU Banks shrugging off the $US1T shortfall headlines, and back in the green as Yields drop on S&P not downgrading Portugal – but Globally Banks weaker again, with China, Indian and UK banks all off 1%+. Over in Asia, Chinese stocks closed at a 17-week low, as local money-market rates hit a six-month high. The Nikkei managed to close unchanged, despite Nintendo getting smacked as they slash Wii shipments. That said, Nikkei futures are up well over 1% as the Yen has slid in early trading today. All of EM Asia was in the red — and Aussie closed basically unchanged despite Miners jumping again, gaining 2% on average. Oil services will be in focus as well, as Royal Dutch warning smacked BP in London. Finally, I’ll be watching for a pulse in Retailers, as the group has been smacked into expiry, and UK retail sales leap higher. “WTAW” will opine on the “Gift Card” effect on seasonality showing possible 12%+ upside in the XRT. Single Stock movers include TWTR +3% (SF initiation), SLB +1% (earnings), GE + 50bp (earnings) — Losers being INTC -4% (earnings), COF -2% (earnings). AAPL is rolling out at China Mobile today, but under some early pressure as the NY Times opines a weak response.
The 10YY is unchanged this AM, but near the highs of the session — That said, FT chattering the Asian demand for Treasuries as Yields are near 1M lows in the USA. Both the Yen and Euro are weaker to the $US, the DXY nearing a new 2month high this AM. This is a natural hedwind for commodities — and we are seeing Industrial Metals weak (China Money rates?), and Gold just dipped red, testing the 50dma yet again. WTI is rallying, mostly against Brent — as OPEC is cutting demand forecasts yet again. Nat gas is seeing some profit-taking, off 1% in early trade. Eyes remain on the AG complex, where Corn is about to reverse earlier gains on headlines of another shipment rejected by the Chinese. Focus should be on the Home Starts print at 8:30, as Builders have been one of the worst performers this week, we also get IP at 9:15, Michigan Confidence at 9:55, JOLTs jobs data at 10, a decent size POMO at 11, and Fed’s lacker speaking at 12:30 ahead of the 3 day weekend in the States. Returns over the past 15 years surrounding the MLK holiday (Friday +ve 60% of the time, avg gain 14bp) – Tuesday up 53% of the time, but with a avg loss of 35bp.
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