Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a roundup of what traders are chatting about ahead of the U.S. market open:
Good Morning! US Futures are basically unchanged, well off the lows of the overnight — but global stocks hover near 3M lows. Today is the first trading day of the month, so watch for the “Good Harbor” rebalance (typically see a big skew in IWM, UWM, IVV, SSO, UST, and IEI). Euro markets are off small as we enter ECB week, as EU Manufacturing PMI strong, and German PMI spikes — reducing dovish chatter. Banks in EU hit for 1% — weighed by bad #s from Lloyds and Baer, but volumes are light. In Asia, the Nikkei enters correction territory, off 10% since Dec30 as the Yen near 2M highs against $US, and 3M highs against €. While trading in Asia was light by the closure of Hong Kong, China, and Taiwan for the lunar New Year holidays, Both China’s PMI prints weigh on sentiment (Manufacturing 6M low, Services 5Y low). Indonesia off 70bp despite surging exports — and India off 1.1% despite a PMI spike, but Thailand surged 1.5% as their election proceeded without major disruptions. Most EM FX remain stable — Lira, Rand and Forint were all unchanged to higher against the $US, but the EEM is marked 60bp lower in early trading. Single Stock movers include FCEL + 2%, PHM + 2% (Susq U/g), HLF + 1.5% (Buyback) – We have 92 companies, or almost 20% of the SPX reporting this week — focus on YUM and APC tonight.
The 10YY is up small, but remains near 2.66%, after being rejected from 2.67% several times in the overnight. The Yen has a bid to it, with $US-Yen breaking below the key 102 support that held several days last week. The € is seeing some buying on their PMI print reducing odds of a cut this week (Seeing projections pushed out to March) — so overall DXY is under slight pressure, providing a tailwind to commodities. Platinum is up 1% (Auto #s today, expecting a weather impact) — and both Silver and Gold are popping (big Gold bullishness in CFTC data). The Crude Complex is basically unchanged, and Copper is up small, despite the Chinese PMI headwind. Natty down 3.5%, a 3rd day in a row, losing 13% from it’s peak and nearing 1week lows. Yellen sworn in today, first testimony is next week on Feb 11th — and this is NFP week — Bloomberg speculates the weather could be a factor again, and Hilsenrath out talking how unemployment a key focus for Janet.
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