JonesTrading’s Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now:
Morning, Happy NFP Day! Street is expecting 230k, but many expecting upside, so the “Whisper” is closer to ~275k (A Beat will be explained by seasonality, while a miss will be blamed on tough November Weather). Europe is having a strong day, as German Factory orders come in much stronger than expected, launching the DAX 1.4%, but volumes remain tepid as we away US Jobs. Increased chatter of ECB QE has PIIGS debt jumping, helping the EU banks gain 2.3%, while German Industrials are leading gains as well. Over in Asia, the action was in China — The Shanghai had a 6% intraday swing in record volumes on heavy retail flow. The Nikkei gained 20bp, HK continues to lag on Protests — while Aussie lost 60bp as Miners retreated.
The US 10YY seeing some relief as flattener trades subside a bit, while the German 10YY is off 2bp as the Bundesbank slashes growth forecasts. The $US is rallying as well, reigning most of yesterday’s losses, as the $US/* breaks toward 121 as Nomura puts a Y125 target on the pair – causing a headwind for commodities. That said, Copper is headed for its biggest weekly gain since August (China). The Oil complex remains under pressure as Saudi widened its discount for Arab Light sales to Asia yesterday, but WTI continues to outperform Brent (USA Growth). Gold is breaking downside of $US1200/oz, so will be important to the Gold Bugs that it recovers back above, or the short could take hold.
Scheduled Catalysts today include NFP, at 8:30 – at 8:45 Fed’s Mester Speaks on Financial Stability, at 10 we get factory Orders, then at 1 watch the Baker Hughes Rig Count. At 2:45 Fed’s Fischer Speaks Via Video to IMF Event, and 3pm gives us Consumer Credit. “Commitment of Trader” data before the closing bell — and Japan’s GDP around 7pm tonight
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