Stifel Nicolaus’s Dave Lutz has a summary of what traders are talking about right now.
Good Morning! US Futures are marked slightly higher, but many feel we are in a holding pattern until the NFP number tomorrow. As a reminder, we have rallied on the last 11 consecutive employment sessions. Markets in EU are mixed, with players awaiting the ECB decision at 7:45 (52 of 55 economists polled expect no change), followed by a presser from Draghi at 8:30. Germany’s DAX has consistently traded on light volume this week, and today is no exception — volumes off 30% from recent averages. Rhetoric is heating up in Ukraine, pressing Russia’s market in the red — but most overseas focus was on China, where Beijing unveiled a mini-stimulus — well anticipated, as the Hang Seng has jumped more than 7% since March 20th, and Copper is off small. In EM, emerging-market equities snapped a nine-day rally — but watch Brazil, as they hiked rates overnight to 11%. The $US/Yen breaking towards 104 was a tailwind for Japanese equities, with the Nikkei adding 1%, and futures indicating a further bounce right now.
The 10YY in the US continues to fail upside of 2.8%, after breaking north of the 100dma yesterday. The DXY is gapping higher, as the € is breaking down into the ECB decision. The $US’s strength is a headwind for commodity prices, and we are seeing metals weaker, led by a 1.3% drop in Silver. Energy commodities are weak as well, as Brent breaks to 5M lows as Libya nears a deal to restart exports. Keep an eye on Natty gas into inventory data today. Other Catalysts scheduled today include Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30, ECB Announces Interest Rates at 7:45, at 8:30 we get the Draghi Pressser — weekly jobless claims data — and the US trade balance. At 9:45 we get US Services PMI from Markit, and the official Services reading from ISM at 10. 10:30 brings us Natty Inventory data, and we have a small POMO at 11.