Stifel Nicolaus’ Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are talking about right now.
Good Morning! Anticipate a very quiet session — with All of Europe and UK Closed — Aussie and Hong Kong as well — for Easter Bank Holiday, combined with Patriot’s Day and Marathon Monday in Boston. With the Dow coming off the Biggest gain of 2014 last week – US Futures are pacing higher, led by a 26bp pop in Nasdaq — but bear in mind that Monday is the worst day of the week for Equities over the last year. Russia is only on major European market open today — and their market is off 60bp as the Geneva agreement frays at the edges. Ukraine’s FX is in rally mode however, and Oil lower, showing no major stress re-building with the Euro players at home. There was some Stress building in Asia as China seizes a Japanese Ship — “Compensation” for 2 ships leased from a Chinese company before the two countries went to war in 1937. Shanghai lost 1.5% as a list of 28 upcoming IPOs was released, while Japan was basically unchanged on volume 40% light to average. Focus will clearly be on earnings this week – We have 50% of the weight of the ITB (Builders) and IBB (Biotech) reporting.
The 10YY continues it’s upside trajectory — testing the 200dma at 2.72% right now. The DXY has some upside trajectory, as the Yen breaks down relative to the $US, a capital market tailwind. We have Gold on 2week lows, and Silver retreating over 1.3% and nearing 9month lows. We have both Brent and WTI retreating small, helping Gasoline come off 13month highs. We will keep an eye on Alberta Oil, as the Keystone Decision is delayed for another year. Wheat is your worst performing commodity, losing over 2% despite weekend headlines talking a killer fungus. We have a very quiet calendar today, with only Chicago Fed at 8:30, U Leading Index at 10, and a small POMO at 11. Some major catalysts this week include Regional Fed Indices, Heavy Home Data – FHFA House Price, Existing and New Home Sales for March, Global PMIs, Former Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, and the HSBC China Manufacturing PMI for April.