Via Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading and strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, here’s a quick rundown of what he’s talking about with clients today:
Good Morning! Futures are lower, as global equities seemed to take a whack around 5 AM ET on better-than-expected EU data, oddly met by a surge in the yen against the euro. E-minis are off 15 basis points, but AAPL has a bid on China headlines, helping Nasdaq futures to slightly outperform. Over in Europe, despite strong German data, the DAX is under slight pressure, but the EU financials remain on their upward tear, adding another 1% (EU Fin Index up 5% in 2014). Volumes across Europe are heavy, with major markets trading 50-80% higher than their 20-day averages. Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped 1.9% after this week’s slump, but futures are indicating the Nikkei 1% lower right now as the yen is catching a bid. China lost small, as their biggest IPO in years is getting scaled back, while Aussie was off small weighed down by continued pressure in the materials sector. In single stocks pre-open — MU is the big gainer, adding 10% on earnings, and BAC is adding 1% as global bank stocks are in favour this AM (Japan, UK and Chinese banks all up 1.5%+). Losers include TWTR (-3% on Cantor downgrade), and MSFT off 1% (Mulally staying at F).
U.S. yields are up very small ahead of ADP and FOMC minutes, and focus is on central bank Thursday, with ECB, BOE, Korea, and Indonesia on tap. The DXY is jumping, but at expense of €, Not yen — providing a headwind to commodities early this AM. Gold is off 25 basis points, as it retreats from continued failures against the 50-day moving average — and attention will be on ore with negative headlines for pricing in the WSJ. Energy complex remains higher in the U.S., as cold weather combined with a massive WTI draw last week support the complex. Brent is outperforming WTI (discount nearing $US14) as shipment expectations for February are reduced and continued concerns over supply from Libya and Iraq.
There is heavy focus on the ADP employment print today at 8:15 and the FOMC minutes at 2. Aside from that, energy players are watching the DOE data at 10:30, as well as the GS conference today. Bond investors will be focused on the 1 PM 10-year auction (3-year auction was weak yesterday), and retail/financial investors will be watching the 3 PM consumer credit print.