Via Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus, here’s a 10second guide to what traders are chatting about on this lovely Jobs Day morning:
Morning! US futures are up small, and the 10YY retreating after breaching the 3% barrier overnight, but all bets are off until we get the NFP number at 8:30 — Most houses on the street expecting a number of 200k+. Seems consensus is the Taper argument looses steam below 150k, but above 250k the street has to reset expectations above a initial tapering of $US10-$12B.
Volume is mixed overseas, and most EU markets are trending flat. Keep an eye on the Italian market into their equity close, as chatter continues that Berlusconi will take down the government over the weekend. In Asia, Rupee bounces again as shorts cover on new RBI Governor — Sensex has biggest weekly advance in 2 months — but Nikkei lost 1.5% as the Yen strengthened and Investors took profits after a strong week in Japan. Asian PC makers Lenovo and Acer fell as DRAM prices continue to trend higher, speculation Hynix’s plant out longer than a few weeks has concerns of Margin Pressure abounding.
The 10YY rests at 2.96%, and seeing Gold bouncing sharply as Syria dominates the headlines — 1st Russia is getting more antagonistic in tone towards strikes — and heavy speculation abounds that Congress is no where near the votes to approve Obama’s strikes. The DXY rests flat, but we have a bid in Oil – Brent crude headed for a fourth weekly gain, the longest rising streak since February — as Libyan exports remain shut, and Syria strokes concerns of a wider conflict.
Copper is having a nice upward move, continued momentum from the accelerating Economic data we are seeing in most Developed markets.
POLITICO: President Obama could lose big on Syria in House – Senior aides say they expect, at most, between 50 and 60 Republicans to vote with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), who support the president’s plan – That would mean the vast majority of the 200 House Democrats will need to vote with Obama for the resolution to pass. But Democrats privately say that Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
and Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) can only round up between 115 and 130 “yes” votes.