Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about before markets open on Tuesday.
Good Morning! US Futures are starting the day higher by about 50bp, and are just below the best levels of the overnight. Tech is trying to lead us higher, with AAPL, MU, FB and NFLX all big slightly higher — but still no bounce in those biotech names early. European markets are showing a very tepid bounce, with the DAX up 30bp as no real bounce in VW, and Healthcare issues come under sharp selling. In London, all eyes are on GLEN, which had bounced 10% on multiple reports from brokers defending the company, but has since surrendered more than half of those gains. Spain’s IBEX is the standout performer, gaining 80bp despite continued separatist headlines from Catalonia. Over in Asia it was a nasty session, as Shanghai fell 2.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 3% and the resources-heavy ASX 200 in Sydney slumped 3.8% as the miners were clobbered on weaker Chinese data. Japan was clobbered with a 4% loss — a “victim of savage profit-taking given the markets initially good run of late” press reported — Telecoms led to the downside — while Emerging markets outperformed, led by India as they cut by 50bp (sharper than expected)
The US 10YY is basically flat on the session, rebounding after sharp buying pushed yields toward 2.05% in the overnight — while Bunds are seeing profit-taking from the big safe-haven move yesterday. The street is digesting multiple hawkish speeches from Fed members, and those Fed Funds are now showing just a 41% chance of liftoff for December as angst grows about a huge debt ceiling fight in Washington come Thanksgiving. The DXY is weaker, losing ground against Yen, but seeing some strength against Euro and commodity currencies like the Aussie $US. With the weaker $US, we have a tailwind for commodities — but liquidation continues in the patch with Gold off 50bp, Silver Flat, Natty down 1.4% and all the “Softs” under pressure. Crude Oil is showing some life after yesterday’s weakness — with WTI bouncing 1.2% towards $US45 into API inventory data tonight.
Scheduled catalysts today include Case-Shiller data at 9, the US Consumer Confidence Index at 10 — and the API inventory data at 4:30. Down in Washington, the Senate Finance Cmte holds hearing on Puerto Rico at 10 — the House Foreign Affairs subcmte holds hearing on counterterrorism in Syria and the House Judiciary Cmte holds hearing on proposed health insurance mergers with Aetna CEO Mark Bertolini, Anthem CEO Joseph Swedish at 2 — and the House Energy and Commerce Cmte marks up H.R. 8, “North American Energy Security and Infrastructure Act of 2015” at 4pm.
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