Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before US markets open on Tuesday.
Good Morning! US Futures are basically flat, with large caps outperforming smalls early — this mirrors tentative action in Europe, as traders eyeball holiday volumes and the FOMC in 2 days. The DAX is gaining 40bp as Consumer and Tech shares rally despite German economic optimism dropping sharply. Utilities in Europe are under solid pressure, with the index off 2% on headlines they are €30b short of requirements for Nuclear clean-up costs (Spiegel). European equities have been softening as investors rotate towards Bunds, and Miners weigh on the FTSE, with Glencore off ~7%, and Rio/BHP off 3%. Over in Asia, Shanghai lost 3.5%, and Shenzen 5% with every sector dropping – Steel, technology and defence sectors led the decline. China’s weakness spread to other exchanges, with Nikkei giving up early gains – Aussie lost 1.5% as it coped with a new PM and downbeat minutes from their Central Bank, and while Korea rallied small, most Emerging Markets were under pressure.
The US 10YY is off small after failing several times to get upside 2.18% in the overnight. Right now while Fed Funds at 30% chance of a hike this week, that 2YY continues to act like September is very much in play. The $US is mixed — losing slight ground against the Euro as it tries to hold 1.13, while that Yen has been strengthening as Bank of Japan stands pat on easing. China growth proxies were all weaker — with A$ and Ore in the red, and Copper barely above the waterline. The Oil complex is seeing a slight gain as heavy builds of US weekly inventories weakened the complex sharply – API data tonight and peeps already expecting a +1.75mln build. Natty gas remains well bid as PMs in the Northeast bundle up for the commute, while all the Softs are mixed this AM, with Corn and Wheat consolidating 6-10% moves over the last week.
Throughout the session, we will get headlines from the Frankfurt Auto Show — and we also have Aug. credit-card charge-offs, delinquencies due for the Credit Cards — The Scheduled Catalysts today include Advance Retail Sales for September at 8:30, followed by US Industrial Production at 9:45 and Business Inventories at 10. We get that API data for Crude at 4:30. Down in DC, Several Senators and Representatives will speak on lifting crude export ban at 8:30; at 12:25 Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman speaks on economic situation in China at Economic Club of Washington — and tonight at 6pm the Senate plans re-do of cloture vote on Iran deal.
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