Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before markets open on Monday.
Good Morning! US Futures are in the green, with the S&P and Nasdaq up roughly 30bp. This follows a tepid rally over in Europe on Rosh Hashanah volumes. The FTSE is FTSE rallying on miners and Semiconductor ARM (Barron’s) — while the DAX is up 30bp on the back of consumer discretionary and HC. China was the market to watch, as the Shanghai fell 2.7%, led by technology and consumer companies. About 12 stocks fell for each that rose as weak economic data was released — Tech Heavy Shenzen was hit for almost 7%, while Smaller-Cap CSI 500 was hit for 6.6% as Consumer discretionary stocks got pummelled in very light turnover. The Nikkei lost 1.6% as telecoms were crushed as Abe called for cut in phone rates. Aussie rallied as banks jumped on Macquarie guidance, and while the KOSPI closed weaker, most emerging markets made small gains as we enter Fed week.
The Bank of International Settlements latest to caution Fed against hiking this week, and doves talking weaker China data early has a persistent overnight bid in US Treasuries. While the 10YY is off small, there was a nice reversal at 2.2% in the overnight. That “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is slightly higher, and Fed Funds rests at a 30% chance of liftoff. The Yen is seeing some covering as we await the BOJ tonight, and watch the Euro — starting to finally lose some ground against the $US — it has risen 6 days straight. The A$ was hit on Political headlines down under — and Industrial metals weaker on China’s industrial production and fixed asset investment numbers, with copper losing 1% — and the Oil complex is under slight pressure as we await OPEC’s monthly market report today. Your best performing energy commodity is Natty, gaining 60bp as it feels darn cold to PMs commuting in the Northeast
It’s a very light session for scheduled catalysts today — with only a crop condition report scheduled at 4pm. Down in Washington, Senate and House not in session today, while President Obama travels to Des Moines, Iowa, with Education Sec. Arne Duncan to hold a town hall on college affordability late this afternoon. International Atomic Energy Agency Holds its Annual Conference, and we do get that OPEC report today. Later this week brings us the FOMC and BOJ decisions — both with pressers, along with 2 Fed Speakers Friday Afternoon — Germany’s ZEW Survey Expectations; Minutes from Aussie and Japan; US Housing Starts for August — and I count 25 Sell Side Conferences this week.
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