Dave Lutz at JonesTrading has the things that traders are talking about today:
Good Morning! Futures are starting on the upswing, as tensions subside in Hong Kong, and Ebola fears subside in the States. Russell Minis are adding 40bp as animal spirits are alive in Europe, with the DAX adding 1% in heavy volume after their 3day weekend, as doves love the collapse in German Factory Orders. Eurostoxx are up 70bp, but FTSE is lagging, held back by the mining companies. Looking like a nice day in Brazil, as Neves forces a runoff in 3 weeks — EWZ marked up 6%, PBR 11% – Over in Asia, Nikkei added 1.1% as the Yen softened, Shanghai Remains closed, while Aussie lost 50bp as the Miners were under pressure. Keep an eye on the Yen, as we get the BOJ decision tomorrow. We have heavy Feds-Speak as well, with Bernanke and multiple FOMC speakers (No Janet) – but the focus will be on the FOMC Minutes Weds. This week also kicks off Earnings season, with YUM tomorrow, AA Wednesday, PEP Thursday, SWYFriday — but watch the Banks as they start reporting earnings next week (XLF a great Q4 performer, returning 9% on average the last 4years.) Watch for pre-announcements from the larger multi-nationals as the stronger $US is probably crimping sales overseas.
Yields are slightly higher, but we have the $US retreating from 4Y highs — causing a tailwind for commodities. Silver and Copper are both popping, hopes of Asian growth as the PBOC had some dovish comments over the weekend, while we are seeing a early bid out of the Crude complex, despite headlines talking about a “OPEC Price War”. WTI is adding 60bp, lagging Brent slightly. Nat gas is retreating sharply, off 2.7%, almost feels like someone reversing the “growth off” trade we have seen with Russian Sanctions. Scheduled Catalysts today include Employment Trends Index at 10, the week’s largest POMO at 11, Treasury Sec Lew chairs Financial Stability Oversight Council Meeting and Fed’s George speaks later tonight. Watch for possible skews in the VIX today — the Calculation inputs are changing from standard 3rd Friday series to Weeklies..
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