Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about right now.
Good Morning! — US Futures are in the green, but 10 handles from 2095 overnight highs as World stocks on course for the best month in four years — Shanghai +11%, DAX and Nasdaq +10%, Nikkei, S&P and Dow +9%. Profit-taking is the name of the game in Europe, which sees the DAX off 50bp as Fins and Materials get hit while Spain is off 1% as index heavyweights BBVA, IAG and ACX all under pressure. Our London desk continues to sound caution on Airlines, as IAG (BA Parent) gets hit sharply on #s. Over in Asia, The Bank of Japan holds off on more stimulus, initially hitting the Nikkei — but Tokyo staged an afternoon rebound Nikkei suggested the BoJ is considering an extra budget to boost stimulus — pushing shares up 80bp. It seemed a sea of red across Asia otherwise, with China off small and only Thailand in the green as China’s 5 year plan will increase “Economic cooperation across the Taiwan Strait.” Aussie lost 50bp in heavy turnover ahead of their Central Bank call next week.
The US 10YY is resting near overnight lows, down 2bp to 2.14% — and with the curve flattening in the early go — Financials may see some further profit-taking from the week’s move.The DXY is under pressure against most majors — notably the Yen has a big bid, pressing the $US/Y towards 120 and stirring equity headwinds. The Euro has managed to pop north of 1.10 in the overnight, and Aussie $US bid as lending expands by most in 7 years down under. With the weaker $US, we shud have tailwinds to commodities — but metals have a very tepid bounce and gold remains firmly under the 200dma — While the Crude complex is seeing a slight bounce ahead of that Baker Hughes Rig Count later today. Softs are bid up across the board, led by Wheat adding to the week’s 5% gains.
Ahead of us today, we have David Tepper on CNBC around 8 (Market up 8% since last appearance where he cautioned on valuations) — and at 8:30 we have one of Janet’s favourite indicators of Labour — the Employment Cost Index — which hits along with PCE; Personal Income and Spending. At 9 we have ISM Milwaukee, and VRX players will be looking for Ackman comments then — at 9:45 we have that Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:43 to paying subs) — and at 10 Fed’s Williams Speaks in Washington and U of Mich. Sentiment hits. Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm, just ahead of that “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30. Down in DC — at 2:30 the Fed holds open meeting to discuss proposed rule establishing total loss absorbing capacity and long-term debt requirements for global systemically important banking organisations (also considers final rule on margin and capital requirements for uncleared swaps of prudentially regulated swap entities). Daylight Savings ends on Sunday AM — Roll those clocks back Late Saturday.
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