Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about before the opening bell on Thursday:
Good Morning! US Futures are giving back some of yesterday’s Fed induced surge, as earnings weigh. Right now the S&P is off 40bp, while the Russell is slightly better as it continues to mean-revert. Exchanges In Europe are all in the red, but the DAX the outperformer, losing only 20bp as PFE for AGN headlines have Healthcare sharply outperforming, and has the Drug-Heavy Swiss market nearly unch. The FTSE is off 80bp as Miners break lower, and tough reports from Barclays and Shell weigh. Turnover is decent across the continent, with many exchanges trading 50% heavier than normal trends. Over in Asia, Shanghai rebounded 80bp from yesterday’s selloff, the Nikkei popped small into the BOJ tonight – Australia was led lower by supermarkets following disappointing guidance from Woolworths, and EM under good pressure on the Fed Hawks — Jakarta lost 3%; Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore all lost 1%+.
The US 10YY is hovering around 2.09%, and the front end of the curve continuing to steepen, so the US Fins may have tailwinds to yesterday’s gains. Fed Funds remain showing a 46% chance of a move in December by Janet, while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY rests near yesterday’s peaks still above 70bp. The $US is retreating from yesterday’s sharp gains, as Euro gets legs on better inflation data, while the Yen is seeing a bid on Solid Japanese IP. The Kiwis lets rates unch, but dovish tone hitting the NZ$ – With the weaker $US, we have a tailwind for commodities, yet Gold is only slightly retracing yesterday’s losses, while Silver rests near unch. The Oil complex is under some pressure after yesterday’s surge, with WTI exhausting itself in efforts to get over $US46 — but as anticipated Natty is acting much better as the weight of expiry passes by.
Scheduled Catalysts are heavy today with 3Q Advance GDP, Core PCE and Weekly Jobless Claims hitting at 8:30 – Fed’s Lockhart Makes Opening Remarks on Workforce Development at 9:10 — At 10AM we round out the week’s housing data with Pending Home Sales for September — while the Natty ground cautiously eyes storage data at 10:30 – ECB’s Constancio Speaks in London at 11, and at 1pm the US Treasury auctions off $US29B in 7Y notes. We get Agricultural Prices at 3pm. Down in Washington, at 8:30 the EPA holds meeting of the Science Advisory Board Hydraulic Fracturing Research Advisory Panel to review draft assessment on fracking – the Full House votes on next speaker at 9am, ahead of the Senate debate on the Budget at 10.
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