From Dave Lutz at JonesTrding, here’s a 10-second guide to what traders are talking about today:
US Futures have been steadily recovering from overnight lows, led by a 30bp pop in the Russell as we have some mean-reversion from the recent smallcap selloff, exacerbated yesterday by a “Good Harbor” rotation suppressing levered Small and Midcap ETFs. After Russell 2000 first enters a “correction”, it takes a median of 16 days and -5.4% loss to hit intermediate- term lows (@sentimentrader).
The Asian session was quite sloppy, as Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.6% as a stronger yen sparked investors’ concerns, and headlines from China warning of “Chaos” as Hong Kong protestors ramp — HK needs to open this Fri and trade well. The DAX just goes green in good volume, after being 1%+ lower, as doves spark covering into the ECB decision (ECB expected to reveal details today of its new asset-purchase program, with no change to policy — Statement 7:45, Presser 8:30). Focus on Germany’s largest tech IPO since early 2000’s, as Rocket Internet collapsed 14% below pricing before recovering most of the losses. Emerging-market stocks fell to a six-month low, while Aussie lost 70bp as the Miners and Banks retreated sharply on Asian slowdown concerns
The US 10YY is seeing some relief after yesterday’s “Good Harbor” related buying, will be key to focus on the HY market today — HY had a very good day yesterday, despite the market action — we need to see if it’s just a 1day “coupon-reinvestment” phenomenon. The DXY is weaker into the ECB, but the Oil complex has taken on a “waterfall formation” as OPEC ‘Appears to Be Gearing Up for Price War’ with Saudi slashing prices yesterday. WTI takes out $US90, electing stops, knocking Brent to 27M lows – Oil now in a bear market, Brent crude down 20% since June. Zero love for precious metals, Gold under pressure on lack of inflation, while Silver loses 1.5% on slowdown concerns. Scheduled catalysts for today include Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30, ECB Rate Decision at7:45, followed by a 8:30 presser from Draghi, just when weekly jobless claims hit – ISM NY at 9:45, Factory Orders and Online Help Wanted Index at 10, a small POMO at 11, Fed’s Lockhart Speaks at 1, while Bullard speaks later tonight on the economy…
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