Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about on Friday:
Good Mornings, and welcome to Jobs Friday – All eyes on today’s US October payrolls report at 8:30 where Economists surveyed by Bloomberg think employers added about 185,000 workers in October with a 5% jobless rate. US Futures are mixed right now, following cautious trading overseas. Germany is off 15bp, with Discretionary and Industrials having a decent day despite German IP numbers coming in weak, but volumes are terrible — running 35% below normal trends. Richemont weighs on Luxury Stocks across the continent as the EuroStoxx loses 50bp. Over in Asia, Shanghai gained 1.9%, bringing the week’s gains over 6% – The Nikkei rose 80bop as yen broke lower – Aussie added 40bp as doves bid up equities on the RBA Minutes. Most Emerging Markets closed basically unchanged save Taiwan, which lost 1.8% ahead of the summit with Chinese leaders this weekend.
The US 10YY is unchanged, while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is adding another bp to trade at 4Y highs.
Fed Funds right now are indicating a 56% chance of liftoff in December, and the $US continues to make gains against the basket — resting now near 8M highs. With the stronger $US we have a headwind for commodities, yet Gold is finally catching a small big after falling an unprecedented 14 out of 16 days. Copper remains weak, but we are seeing a small bid in Silver and Platinum – The Oil complex is regaining some of yesterday’s losses into the Rig Count later today — while Natty gas is off small. The Grain complex is mixed, while Cattle and Hogs are outperforming after the sharp smackdown this week. Overall commodity moves, like Treasuries, are patiently awaiting the NFP print for direction.
Ahead of us today, we have the Jobs report at 8:30 – Fed’s Bullard Speaks on Economy and Policy in St. Louis at 9, Oil traders will focus on that Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1. At 3pm we get US Consumer Credit – just ahead of the 3:30 release of CFTC’s “Commitment of Traders” data. Fed’s Brainard Takes Part in IMF Panel on Monetary Policy at 4:15 — It’s quiet in DC, with nothing on the President’s schedule, and the Senate/House out of session for the weekend.
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