Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about before the opening bell on Monday:
Good Morning, and welcome to “Cyber Monday!” I have been working on the “Wall Street Holiday Gift List” this AM, and have to say that every website I pulled up was flashing outrageous deals. This week we get the ECB, NFP, ADP, OPEC, BoC, RBI, RBA, ISM Mfg, Factory Orders, EU PMIs, CAD jobs and a slew of speakers — ahead of that US Futures are tracking higher, led by a 40bp pop in the Russell which is well outpacing the S&P’s 5bp advance. Markets in Europe are all in Rally Mode, with Germany’s DAX adding nearly 1% with every sector advancing, led by a 2% pop in Discretionary shares. The FTSE is lagging though as the Financials and Miners retreat, offsetting the gains in that discretionary sector — Overall Volumes in Europe are average to last 20days. Asian Volumes were strong on MSCI semi-annual rebalance day with most markets rolling over into the close – Shanghai rallied slightly into the green, reversing losses of over 3% after Friday’s smackdown — While the Kospi was hit for almost 2% on weaker Industrial Production numbers. Both Japan and Aussie lost 69bp, as negative momentum in the miners returned, with BHP plunging to new multi-year lows.
The US 10YY is up small, but Fed Funds have moved to a 76% chance of liftoff in a few weeks, and that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is breaking to new highs ahead of that Jobs Report on Friday, along with Multiple Fed Speakers, including Yellen twice, along with the Beige Book. The DXY remains bid above 100, as Euro remains under 1.06 as we await the ECB later this week, and the Yen broke south on weaker Japanese IP. Despite this headwind, most commodities are in the green, with Copper adding 60bp and even Gold staging a slight rally off lows. The Crude Complex is whippy ahead of OPEC Friday, with WTI and Brent tentatively holding 1% gains early. Natty gas remains in the green despite warmer weather on the East Coast, while Softs are all mixed early.
Ahead of us today, we have the IMF decision on the Chinese Yuan SDR inclusion, at 8:30 the Fed Board to meet on Dodd-Frank amendments, at 9am we get ISM Milwaukee ahead of that 9:45 release of the Chicago Purchasing Manager (9:43 for paying subs). 10am brings us Pending Home Sales for October, and 10:30 we get the Dallas Fed Manf. Activity. At 3pm we get US Agricultural Prices, and 3:30 brings the delayed “Commitment of Traders” data from the CFTC. President Obama is in Paris for climate talks, while today brings the Deadline for EPA final rule on ethanol blending quotas, known as the Renewable Fuel Standard.
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