From Dave Lutz at Stifel, Nicolaus, a quick overview of what everyone is talking about today.
Spoiler alert: It’s very quiet.
On this day in 1789, President George Washington set aside a day of thanksgiving in order to honour the adoption of the U.S. constitution. US futures are basically unchanged, after the DJIA hit a record Close, and the NDX nearing 13Y highs yesterday. Much was made of the “High Beta” underperformance yesterday, a trend we have seen on Mon-Weds this entire month. European Markets were up small, but volumes have collapsed as we bear into Holidays — EU markets trading 30-40% below 20day averages today. We should have some explosive Global volumes on equity market closes, as we have the MSCI rebalance today — The Total trade size for developed markets is $US11.2bn and 50% larger than May’s. Over in Asia, the Yen stabilised on BOJ minutes, triggering profit-taking in Japan, with the Nikkei off 60bp. China was basically unchanged, India gave back 1% of it’s surge from yesterday — while there is stress in Indonesia, with their market off over 2% As Dollar Bond Sales Disappoints. Thailand stabilised despite the protests, gaining 50bp after being hit hard yesterday. Here is the States, focus on the Builders as we have October Housing Starts in focus after the miss yesterday, and Case-Shiller data. Some names moving include TIF +6% on earnings, FCX off 2% on GS downgrade, MU will be watched, as Einhorn is long 23mln shares — and we get numbers from HPQ tonight.
The 10YY is unchanged, after hitting fresh week lows near 2.7% overnight — While the DXY is off as the € is picking up some upward momentum into speeches from a few ECB members. With the DXY weaker, that’s a natural tailwind for commodities: We have Metals like Silver and Gold higher, while Copper is in the red as China makes another move against Shadow Financing. Natty is bid up 1% on US weather — and eyes are on the energy complex, as Brent remains in the red, but WTI has a bid on the weaker $US and forecasts of a drawdown in US supplies. We have Housing Starts at 8:30; Case-Shiller at 9; Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed at 10; a very small POMO at 11; A 5Y auction at 1, right when ECB’s Asmussen speaks — and very active around the closing bell, with the MSCI rebalance, Short Interest data from NYSE released, and API data for the Energy complex ahead of DOE tomorrow.
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