Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking before the market opens on Tuesday.
Good Morning! US Futures have been under pressure since about 3:30am ET when headlines hit that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet, initially knocking the S&P off well over 1% – but cooler heads have started bidding them back up, reversing more than half initial losses. Over in Europe, Istanbul’s Market was hit for over 1.5% on the headlines — while the DAX is off 1.2% as Travel stocks are hit by slump in flight bookings and US Travel warnings — Airlines EasyJet, Deutsche Lufthansa and British Airways parent IAG all fell by more than 2.5% at one point. The FTSE is off 1% as nearly every group drops into the red, led by those Consumer Discretionary stocks. Volumes are actually pretty decent across the continent, with Germany trading 25% heavier than normal trends. Over in Asia, Shanghai closed up small, the Nikkei gained 20bp after being closed yesterday, and Aussie snapped a 5day winning streak — Miners got hit as Iron ore slumps to lowest in at least seven years. Despite the spectre of US rate rises coming in a few weeks, Emerging Markets held their ground with most Asian exchanges closing in the green.
The US 10YY continues to be well bid, following Bund Yields lower and testing 2.22% in the overnight. Fed Funds rest at a 74% chance of liftoff, the highest we’ve seen — while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY rests near 5Y closing highs. That said, the Euro has a bid to it after yesterday’s weakness as German business sentiment jumped to a 17 month high in November, and the Yen popping as the country’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace since March 2014. With the DXY lower, we have a tailwind for commodities, but it feels tentative at best. Copper and Nickel had leapt higher in the Asian session, but have steadily been surrendering early gains — While the Crude Complex is up 1.4%, but thus far WTI has been unable to get upside $42.50 as we await inventory data later tonight in the States. Softs are mostly mixed, but Sugar continues to track higher, adding to last week’s 4%+ gains.
Ahead of us today, we get the NAR commercial real estate report/forecast at some point, but we start with USA’s 3Q GDP Second Reading at 8:30, followed by Case-Shiller data for Housing at 9am. At 10 we get Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Index, then we have 2 auctions from the US Treasury – $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes at 11:30, and $35B in 5Y notes at 1pm. We get that API data for Crude at 4:30 tonight. Down in Washington, the Senate and House remain in recess, but at 9am there is a CFTC open commission meeting to consider proposal on automated trading. At 11:30 Obama, Hollande hold joint press conference in DC to discuss a possible alliance with Russia to battle extremists, and at 12:30 the Renewable Fuels Assoc. holds conf call briefing to discuss climate impacts of ethanol production and use compared to petroleum, other energy alternatives.
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