Good morning! We hope you are enjoying the winter-like conditions across much of the US on this Tuesday morning. Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about this morning.
Good Morning! US Futures are starting mixed, as the Russell jumps 30bp, while S&P and NDX are flat. Overseas markets are enjoying tailwinds, with Abe calling snap election and delaying the tax hike (well expected), and dovish hopes continuing from ECB on the back of Draghi comments. Germany’s ZEW bounced back sharply helping DAX jump 1.2% in average volume as Materials, Industrials and Banks perform well in Europe. Over in Asia, Russia’s MICEX continues to climb as Oil stabilizes, while the Nikkei surges 2% on hopes of additional stimulus measures from the new Abe government. The HK link remains a “Sell the News” in light volume, with China off 70bp as China new home prices fell in virtually every city surveyed. The Sensex finally took a breather from it’s recent run, while Staples and Tech helped propel the KOSPI up 1% as Samsung jumped post-analyst day. Emerging Asia is had a strong overnight, with Malaysia and Thailand rallying behind Indonesia’s much anticipated subsidized fuel price hike overnight — while Aussie lost small, weighed down by the Miners.
The US 10YY is flat this AM, with most of the Sovereign attention on PIIGS spreads post-Draghi’s speech yesterday. BoE Gov. Mark Carney flagged up “huge disinflationary forces,” a remark which was taken as a strong hint that record-low U.K. interest rates aren’t going up anytime soon — The DXY is retreating into the Fed’s minutes tomorrow — giving commodities a nice tailwind this AM. The Standout winner is Gold – climbing 1.2% to the highest in two weeks (speculation the ECB may purchase assets including bullion to counter low inflation / SNB Vote / Crowded Short). Growth commodities remain under pressure, with Copper off 1% and WTI giving up pre-market gains (was up 1%) into Oil Inventories and Expiry. Scheduled Catalysts today include Total Net TIC Flows At 9, NAHB Housing Market Index and Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales at 10 — Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy at 1:30, and After the close we get API inventories for Crude. The Spot VIX contract expires today, and at some point we may have the US Senate voting on Keystone tonight.
Some trades I’m watching today — ITB (Builders) held key support again yesterday ($US25), but HD is under pressure early on #s ahead of NAHB data / Watch the Gold Miners — someone has been rolling from GDX/GDXJ into the levered NUGT, which has surged 25% the last 2 sessions / With the Russell Outperforming, I’m watching to see if today is a “Good Harbour” day, as they are currently UW Smallcaps / With Oil breaking down into Expiry, imagine more headwinds for HYG as the HY Energy Credits continue to be sold / Keystone headlines may impact TRP, ENB, SU, IMO, CVE, CNQ, CNRL and refiners — but a Obama Veto looms large / Watch the levered Gun&Ammo plays (RGR, SWHC, ATK, DKS, CAB, TASR) with Ferguson headlines heating up into the Jury decision.
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