Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good morning! US Futures are adding to yesterday’s gains, as chartists worldwide eyeball Monday’s strong reversal signals. The S&P is up 40bp and just off overnight highs near 2060. Markets are all much stronger overseas, with the DAX adding 2% as every major sector is in the green, led by the Discretionary and Materials sectors. France’s equity market is jumping nearly 2.5% despite continued tourism concerns into Paris — While the Greeks are up nearly 3% on news of a deal with its creditors. Like yesterday, however, volumes are unimpressive — tracking at basically their 20day average. Over in Asia is was a sea of Green, save China which saw Shanghai close slightly weaker as investors eyeball the coming doubling of Margin costs. The Nikkei closed up over 1% to end near a 3M high as the Yen weakened; Aussie ripped 2.3% higher on the back of Financials and Energy Firms, and all of the Emerging Markets in Asia ended with a bid.
As we await Inflation data in the States this AM, we have some sharp selling of Treasuries, pressing that 10YY near the 2.3% level and the “Policy Sensitive” 2YY 1bp higher. Fed Funds have moved hawkishly, with the street now at a 68% chance of a liftoff. The $US flirts with 12-year highs as the Euro smashes under 1.07 as the ECB Doves grew in volume on Tuesday — thanks to slowdown concerns stemming from the fight against ISIS, coupled with the German ZEW survey causing some angst. With the stronger $US, we have a headwind for commodities — and nowhere is that more profound than in the Metals – Copper and Zinc are getting whacked again to fresh 6Y lows, while Gold is nearing its lowest close since 2010. Headlines state that Ore is dropping 5% and resting near July Lows. The Oil complex is giving back some of yesterday’s surge as we await US Oil Inventories — WTI is dropping 1.2% early. Finally, the Natty gas complex remains under pressure, with the benchmark contract falling over 3% in the early go as Norwegian flows come back online.
Ahead of us today, we get US CPI at 8:30, followed by Industrial Production at 9:15. 10am brings us both the NAHB Housing Market Index, along with Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales — pushing the retailers into center stage along with WMT numbers. We have 2 FOMC speakers this afternoon, starting with Fed’s Powell at 1:15, followed by Fed’s Tarullo speaking on Shadow Banking at 3:30. At 4pm we get Long-term TIC Flows from the US Treasury, followed by that API data for Crude at4:30. Another big day of Sell Side Conferences, with 5+ scheduled along with Nareit continuing in Vegas, and Robin Hood wrapping in NYC with Loeb, Pickens, Paul Tudor Jones, Ackman, Bozza and Lee Ainslie.
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