Dave Lutz, head of Exchange Traded Funds at JonesTrading, has a brief overview of what traders are watching in markets.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record for a fourth straight session on Tuesday. But ahead of the market open, US stock futures are retreating from all-time highs, while indexes across Europe are selling off.
- Treasurys are on the decline again after pausing on Tuesday. It’s being called the “Trumpflation trade:” the next administration is expected to stoke inflation through its massive fiscal spending plans.
- Commodities are lower across the board, with oil down 1.5% after the American Petroleum Institute reported a bigger build in oil inventories than expected last week.
Good Morning! US Futures taking a breather from all-time highs, with the Russell dropping 40bp and Spoos down 30bp in early trade. It’s a sea of red across the European continent, as the DAX drops 50bp as consumer stocks weaken, and Miners getting hit after Ore in China was whacked for another 7%. Healthcare looking choppy after Bayer’s Convert deal causes weakness — While only the telecommunication and media sectors seem to be leading to the upside. FTSE is off 40bp on those miners, more than offsetting a strong showing by London-based Fins. In Asia, Nikkei lifted 1% on falling Yen — Japan’s Banks have ripped 20% higher in the last week – Kospi climbed 60bp – Shanghai lost small, while Aussie closed flat as Banks offset big losses by those miners.
The “Trumpflation trade” continuing this AM, with the 10YY at new Peaks near 2.29% – German Bunds are yielding 3bp higher, but eyes on Kuroda as JGB’s moved to 3bp overnight, above the BOJ’s 0% target. Right now Fed Funds at a 94% chance for December Hike, up from 86% yesterday ahead of Yellen tomorrow — driving the DXY to fresh 13Y highs. Euro getting whacked thru 1.07 as Portuguese and Italian debt led declines in Europe on Political angst, Commodity Currencies are all weaker, with the Aussie$ getting smoked this AM, and EM Hit again, Lira, Ruble, Rand and Peso all lower. Commods look red across the board, with Copper down 1% and Gold off 30bp, while Oil is retreating 1.5% as API data showed bigger builds than anticipated.
Ahead of us today, Fed’s Kashkari speaks at 7:45 — We get US PPI at 8:30, followed by Industrial Production at 9:15. Bank of England Bond-Buying Operation Results hit at 9:50, just before the release of the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10. 10:30 brings DOE data for Crude — Last night API Showed a build of 3.64M (Street at 1M) — Cushing pop of 1.1M (Street at 150k) — but Gasoline fell less than expected, 150k drawdown (Street at -1.1M), while Distillates jumped nearly 3MM. At 4pm we get Net TIC Flows, and the Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting kicks off. 5:30 brings us another Fed speaker, Fed’s Harker.
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