Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a brief guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning, and Happy Payroll Friday! US Futures are sliding off a bit into the print, with SPX losing 25bp in light trade. This mirrors broad weakness across Europe, which sees the DAX off 80bp as European stocks head for their worst week in 3 months. Financials remain a heavy weight, followed by weakness in Tech. The FTSE fresh 1M lows as ArcelorMittal gets hit, but most exchanges across the continent are trading 10-20% light to trends. Southeast Asian stocks suffer longest losing streak in 16 years, with weakness across the region. Shanghai was whacked for 2.8% – Telecom, Property and Tech led declines as the PBOC moved to drain liquidity, Japan closed 30bp lower as they returned from Holiday, but the small cap Mothers ripped 4.2% as retail continues to buy the dip – Only Aussie bucked the trend, as Sydney popped 25bp as the miners finally got a bounce.
The US 10YY remains under 1.75% as Bund yields broke 15bp to downside and Benchmark 20-yr JGB yield hits fresh record lows. The DXY is retreating from this week’s peaks, as positon squaring into US Employment sees Euro gaining upward steam above 1.14, and the $/Y breaking downside 107. Eyes on Aussie, as the A$ getting hit as Aussie Central Bank slashes inflation forecasts down under. Ore gets hit for 3.3% and Rebar 2% as Dalian Exchanges hikes margins – With the weaker $, we find Gold and Silver catching a bid, while WTI remains just red as the Fort McMurray fires spreading, knocking over 1mmbpd offline. Softs are mixed across the board.
We get the US Employment Report at 8:30, the street looking for 205k (A beat can be blamed on the calendar, a miss on the weather). Energy focus will be on the Baker Hughes Rig count at 1. At 3pm, we get Consumer Credit data, followed by that CFTC “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30.