Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a brief guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning, and Happy Cinco de Mayo! Trading is light globally, with holidays in Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Switzerland, and the Nordic nations — but US futures are in Rally mode, gaining 50bp as commodities try to recover from this week’ weakness. Exchanges across Europe are all higher, led by a 30bp gain in the DAX, but weakness in the EU financials persists across the continent. The FTSE is lagging, trading near unchanged as Miners come in for sale once again, while continued political angst in Turkey is hitting Istanbul for 2% – We had a seventh straight dip for Asian shares overnight with the excerption of China, which saw the Shanghai rise 20bp, and Aussie, which climbed small as a big-bank rally offset more miner losses. Heavy focus on Japan’s re-opening tomorrow.
The US 10YY rejected from 1.8% early, but the front end of the curve is steepening a bit ahead of NFP data tomorrow. This is despite angst continuing across Europe, which sees Bund yields back below 20bp and Italy’s paper getting hit relative to Germany’s. The DXY continues to shred the 3Y high short-base, jumping sharply against Euro, while $/Y has moved back above 107. Metals are mixed, despite Silver and Gold rallying despite the stronger $, while Ore lost 5% and Rebar lost another 3.5% in China – No bounce in BHP down under from yesterday’s bloodletting. The Oil complex is percolating, with WTI up 3% on a trifecta of headers: Canada wildfire disrupts 800k/day of supply, Tension in Libya spooking shorts, and Saudi spikes OSPs to Asia.
Ahead of us today, we get Challenger Job Cuts data at 7:30, just before the Weekly Jobless Claims hit at 8:30. Natty Gas Inventory data hits at 10, then we get some heavy FedSpeak – Fed’s Bullard (Hawk, Voter) at 11:30, Fed’s Kaplan (Neutral, Non) at 6pm tonight, and Fed’s Bullard, Kaplan, Lockhart, Williams Speak at Stanford at 7:15. In Washington, Neither the Senate or House are in session.
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