Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are adding small as Traders get back from the 3day weekend as M&A kicks up (JAZZ for CPXX, GXP for WR) and Oil holds near $50 ahead of OPEC Thursday. Euro markets are seeing profit-taking, as the “leave” vote is ramping again in London — The DAX is off 40bp as Autos lag across the continent on VW #s and Industrials fall under pressure. London is down 16bp as a rally in staples offsets lower Miners. Volumes are abysmal tho, with most exchanges trading 20-40% light to recent trends. Was pretty much a sea of Green in Asia, as Chinese stocks post biggest daily gain in three months on MSCI inclusion chatter — Shanghai jumped 3.3%, while the Nikkei rose 1% as industrial output and household spending data came in better. Aussie closed May by losing 50bp as the Miners fell under some pressure with some lower metal prices in Focus. Most of EM Asia closed mixed.
The Dollar is stronger, making gains against Sterling — but Euro is lower as Euro area inflation matched expectations, while Yen is up small. Focus remains on the Commodity currencies are up, led by a pop in that Aussie $. Fed Funds are showing a 30% chance of a hike in 2 weeks, while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY is up near 2month highs. Metals are starting today mixed, with Nickel, Zinc and Platinum all higher, while Gold is down again after snapping a 8day losing streak yesterday. The Oil complex is mixed, with Brent under pressure on headers of OPEC ramps, while dropping Cushing supplies seems to be supporting WTI. Natty is rebounding from last week’s weakness, while Gasoline is dropping quickly. Softs are mixed, with many grains under pressure early.
Ahead of us today, we get Personal Spending and PCE at 8:30, followed by S&P/Case-Shiller at 9am. At 9:45 we get that Chicago Purchasing Manager (*9:43 for paying subs), ahead of Consumer Confidence Index at 10 and Dallas Fed Manf. Activity at 10:30. High noon brings the EIA Petroleum supply monthly report, and grains will focus on USDA farm prices at 3pm. This is a data heavy week, with the ECB rate decision, US Payrolls, OPEC meeting in Vienna, Global Manufacturing and Non- Manufacturing PMIs and multiple FOMC speakers ahead of the Fed’s blackout next week.