Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about ahead of the opening bell:
Good Morning! US Futures are 40bp higher, but equities coming in from overnight peaks as those Bund Yields take out the week’s lows. Markets across Europe remain a sea of green tho, with the DAX adding 60bp in average volumes. Fins are leading to the upside, as Credit Suisse and ING shares jump 5%+ on #s. Miners lagging across the continent and in London as metals continue to get slammed in China. Athens is jumping nearly 3% as a debt relief deal nears, while the Fin bid propels Italy +2%. Over in Asia, China closed unchanged as Inflation data hit — Nikkei leapt 2% as the Yen is breaking lower on more jawboning from Aso — The Philippines jumped 2.6% on election headers, while Aussie rose for a 4th day despite mining weakness, as the big banks jumped higher.
With the German 10YY breaking downside 12bp as German Industrial Output drops, setting off stops at CTAs and Macros, driving flows from equities to Sovs and causing the US 10YY nosediving toward 1.75%. The DXY remains en fuego, causing max pain at the huge short-base as it gains against Euro and Yen — causing a headwind for commodities. Slight bounce in base metals, but feels short-term as Ore and Rebar hit in China for a 6th day, losing nearly 5%. WTI was trying to buck headlines (Saudi Aramco to boost output in 2016, Canadian Fires moving from Oil Sands), but CL got exhausted trying to get upside $44, and has reversed lower. Natty Gas is showing a nice bid, popping 2%, while most of the softs r tracking higher.
Ahead of us today, we get US Wholesale Inventories and JOLTS Job Openings at 10 – World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) hits at noon, right when the EIA releases its monthly short-term energy outlook. At 1pm, the US Treasury sells $24B in 3Y notes. After the close, we get that API data for Crude — Yesterday Genscape anticipated a huge build of nearly 1.4M in Cushing alone. Down in Washington, the House meets at noon, to take up the first bills in a series of opioid-related measures — while the Senate meets at 2:15pm; to continue debate on the Energy and Water Development spending bill.
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