Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are adding small ahead of Yellen at 12:30 in Philly, a timely speech as the Fed tomorrow goes into its “Blackout Window” ahead of next week’s meeting. European markets are mixed, with the DAX basically unchanged with Telecom under pressure, and Banks weak across the continent. The FTSE is well outperforming tho, gaining nearly 1% as Miners lead to upside in London, with Rio, Anglo and BHP up 5%+. Volumes are weak, with most exchanges trading 25-35% light to recent trends. Over in Asia, Exporters hit in Tokyo but Nikkei lost only 40bp despite the rip higher in Yen — China closed basically flat, while Miners a nice day in Aussie leading equities up nearly 1%. Most of EM Asia was in rally mode, but India was hit for 25bp ahead of their central bank decision.
Fed Funds showing 4% chance of a hike next week, down from 30% a week ago, while that 10YY is struggling around post-payroll peaks, unable to get back upside 1.72% early. FX Focus is in London, where Britain’s Sterling is getting smoked following more opinion polls showing “Leave” momentum, while Italian municipal elections coupled with Weaker German factory orders weigh on Euro. Despite the Greenback bouncing from its worst beatdown since Early December, we have a nice recovery in metals, with Ore closing up 1% in China and Copper hitting 1M highs. Natty gas continues to charge higher, while the Oil complex is popping despite headers of Iranian Exports ramping fast. Softs are stronger across the board.
Ahead of us today, the ECB Publishes Weekly, Monthly QE Holdings at 9:45, and we get the US Labour Market Conditions Index Change at 10. The “Main Event” is at 12:30, where Yellen speaks at World Affairs Council of Philadelphia luncheon event. It’s quiet down in DC, where the House isn’t in session and Senate meets at 2pm; plans to take up S. 2943, the annual defence authorization measure.