Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures remain flat, losing very small after the Dow’s least volatile day in 7months yesterday. Markets over in Europe are trading slightly higher, but on very light volumes as we await the ECB decision at 7:45 (No Change Expected), but focus on Draghi’s presser at 8:30 for Growth / Inflation forecasts and Corporate Bond purchase details. Financials (especially Italian banks) and “Bond Proxies” are outperforming, while Tech is sliding lower. The FTSE is up 40bp as Energy names rally. Over in Asia, The Nikkei was hit for 2.3% amid strength for the yen as no fresh fiscal stimulus was announced – Shanghai climbed 40bp, while Aussie lost nearly 1% to a 1month low as banks and commodities came under pressure. Most of EM Asia rallied, responding to the drop overnight in the Greenback.
The $ is under pressure into jobs data (ADP today, NFP tomorrow), losing ground to Sterling (no fresh overnight Brexit angst), Euro and Yen (BOJ member Sato comments) early, but making some gains against Commodity Currencies. With the weaker $, we have a slight bid in commodities — with Silver and Gold adding 50bp, but those Industrial metals are weaker, led by a 50bp drop in Ore and Copper. The Oil complex is flat ahead of the Opec meeting in Vienna today, where Iran has thrown cold water on the idea of a production ceiling. Natty Gas continues to confound the shorts, adding another 1% and climbing nearly 10% in the last week towards 2016 peaks. Softs are being bid-up across the board.
Ahead of us today, we get Challenger Job Cuts at 7:30, the ECB rate Decision at 7:45, then the ADP Employment data at 8:15. Headline algos will get busy around 8:30, with the Draghi presser, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Fed Governor Powell (voter, centrist) giving a keynote speech at SIFMA’s Conference. At 9:45 we get ISM New York, then ECB’s Draghi speaks again at 10. The Energy complex will come into focus, with Natty Gas Inventory data at 10:30, followed by DoE at 11 — Last night API showed Crude inventories climbed 2.3M (Street looking doe DRAW of 2.5M), but big draws in Gasoline (1.5M), Distillates (1.15M) and Cushing (1M) all supportive of the complex. We wrap the session with 2 more Fed Speakers, New York’s Dudley (voter, dove) at 11:30, followed by Dallas’s Kaplan (non-voter, centrist) at 1. I will not be publishing tomorrow. I am headed up to NYC tonight to attend the Kiwi’s last fundraiser on the Intrepid, on the early train back tomorrow for NFP and my son’s graduation.