Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about on Friday:
Good Morning! US Futures are off slightly, reversing early gains we saw in the overnight hours as Quad Expiry tractor beams take hold. It’s a raging party in Europe, where every major exchange is jumping 1% – EU Fins leading the rebound — DB and CS bouncing from all-time lows, while those Italy Banks are jumping 5%. Those “Bond Proxy” groups of telecom and Staples are the only major sectors under pressure. London is up 1.2% as “Brexit” campaigning is suspended for a 2nd day, with Fins and Miners jumping to the upside. Volumes are quite strong across the continent, with most exchanges trading 1.5x over normal trends. Over in Asia, China climbed 40bp, while Aussie added 30bp — Nikkei rebounded 1% after its smackdown yesterday — it lost 6% on week and is just of 4month lows. Emerging Markets closed green across the board.
We are seeing Haven flows reversing, with the German 10YY back over 1bp and US 10YYs back over 1.6% — the British Pound in rally mode, bouncing from 2month lows as Betting odds have dropped to a 36% chance of “leave” winning. The $/Y remains near a 2Y low despite Aso comments, but the DXY si under pressure as Commodity currencies are rallying, led by Canada, South Africa and Aussie. Despite the weaker $, Gold continues to reverse lower, losing 60bp — while Silver is hit for 1.3%. WTI rallying for 1st time in 7days, breaking upside $47 as peeps reverse the Gold/Oil pairs. Softs are all staging a sharp rally, with Wheat up 1%+.
Scheduled catalysts are light today — we get Housing Starts and Building Permits for May at 8:30 — then attention turns to Europe where ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks at 11. At 1pm we get that Baker Hughes Rig Count — followed by the CFTC’s “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30. Today is Quad Expiry (Index and Futures expire on Open, Singles and ETFs on close) — we also have Ex-Divvy day for a pile of ETFs (including SPY, QQQ, IWM) — and there is a S&P rebalance on the close (said to favour Utilities with funding from Discretionary.)
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