Good morning on Jobs Day in America. From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick look at what traders are talking about this morning:
Good Morning, and Happy NFP Friday! Consensus at 240k Whisper at 262k, yet 7 of Bloomberg’s top 9 forecasters are all lower than the street. The U.S. has added at least 200,000 jobs a month for 10 straight months. US Futures are starting slightly weaker ahead of the print — but EU markets are all red, the DAX off 60bp and STOXX off 1.5% in heavy volume as the EU Fins under are under sharp pressure, losing 3% led by Santander’s €7.5B Overnight Offering, stock off 10%. Chatter RBS raising £2B has it off over 3% now. Common theme developing, prob see a rotation towards US Fins, especially if the Yield Curve starts steepening — a major tailwind. Athens being your one bright spot, gaining 3% on some short-covering into this weekend’s press and polls. Over in Asia, Russia is off 3% (downgrade imminent and weak Oil), and there was a volatile session on the Shanghai, with an initial surge of 3% surrendered to close down 20bp. Aussie jumped 1.6% as Energy names rebound, while the Nikkei gained small as a stronger Yen held back their exporters.
The US 10YY is back at 2%, while German yields are slightly higher as reports hit the ECB looking at a €500bln of buying, seems to be disappointing markets a bit. The Dollar is retreating slightly from 9year highs, more dovish comments from FOMC Voters – Kocherlakota said last night raising interest rates this year would crimp a rebound in inflation. Despite this tailwind, Oil is weaker, more OPEC nations saying no output cut, and increased Export chatter from USA. Natty gas failed overnight to get above $US3, but is holding most of yesterday’s post-inventory gains. With the $US weaker, Gold holds its bid over the 100dma. Scheduled Catalysts today include the Employment report at 8:30, The Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1, Fed’s Lacker to Deliver Speech on 2015 Economic Outlook at 1:20, and around that time President Obama speaks in to highlight education initiatives. Sometime this afternoon the House to vote on Keystone — and we close with the “Commitment of Traders” data at 3:30. Bloomberg says at some point today the Supreme Court may issue list of new cases it’s going to consider.