Here's A 10-Second Guide To What Traders Are Talking About This Morning

Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading and strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, passes along what he’s “chattering about as I await the Beard” — the bewhiskered Ben Bernanke’s final FOMC meeting.

Good Morning! Much of the overnight enthusiasm is wearing off as EU/US traders’ man their desks. We had a Wall at 1800 in the e-minis pre-market, and it’s hard to image a break above prior to the FOMC announcement at 2pm today. Right now E-Minis are off slightly, while Nasdaq is slightly higher as AAPL tries to recover from yesterday. Focus on Turkey, where the Lira has given up a chunk of it’s gains, but remains near 2week highs against the $US. Turkey’s equity market saw it’s bid evaporate as well, after being up 3% early, is now 1% underwater. The DAX just bounced off unchanged, and the EU fins remain well bid, up 60bp. Volumes have been decent overseas, with major EU/UK markets trading 10-30% above their normal trend. In Asia, the Nikkei leapt 2.7% as the Yen dropped (Futures adding another 50bp), while the Sensex slipped red on profit taking after yesterday’s jump. Ahead of the Fed, my focus will be on the Lira$ and Real$ crosses — if they start getting hit we could lose much of yesterday’s gains — WSJ reports Last year the S&P 500 dropped during five of the eight days the Fed concluded a meeting, a surprisingly consistent outlier during the market’s record-breaking rally.. Single Stock Movers include FSL +8% (#s), DDD + 2%, EA + 2% (#s) — The losers are RFMD, YHOO -4% (#s), VMW -3% (#s)

The 10YY in the US is up small, and continues to consolidate around it’s 100dma. Stress remains in the Treasury Bills expiring post debt-ceiling; with March maturities still yielding 10bp over Jan’s. The DXY is slightly lower, gaining against the € but losing ground to the Yen. We do have a bid to metals, specifically Industrial one like Silver and Copper as China’s default risk fades into the sunset (for now) — while Gold is jumping 1% as it has bounced a few days off the $US1250 level. Nat gas is trekking 2% higher, while WTI is under pressure on a large inventory build in API data last night. While the highlight of the day will be the FOMC at2pm (No presser) — we have DOE data on Crude at 10:30 (looking for a 2.2mln increase), there is NO POMO today at 11, a early Treasury auction of floaters at 11:30, and New Zealand announces on rates tonight at 5. Many will have there eyes on China’s official PMI overnight, as the “flash” PMI spooked traders last week.

And check out our preview of today’s big FOMC meeting »

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