Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading and strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, passes along what he’s “chattering about as I await the Beard” — the bewhiskered Ben Bernanke’s final FOMC meeting.
Good Morning! Much of the overnight enthusiasm is wearing off as EU/US traders’ man their desks. We had a Wall at 1800 in the e-minis pre-market, and it’s hard to image a break above prior to the FOMC announcement at 2pm today. Right now E-Minis are off slightly, while Nasdaq is slightly higher as AAPL tries to recover from yesterday. Focus on Turkey, where the Lira has given up a chunk of it’s gains, but remains near 2week highs against the $US. Turkey’s equity market saw it’s bid evaporate as well, after being up 3% early, is now 1% underwater. The DAX just bounced off unchanged, and the EU fins remain well bid, up 60bp. Volumes have been decent overseas, with major EU/UK markets trading 10-30% above their normal trend. In Asia, the Nikkei leapt 2.7% as the Yen dropped (Futures adding another 50bp), while the Sensex slipped red on profit taking after yesterday’s jump. Ahead of the Fed, my focus will be on the Lira$ and Real$ crosses — if they start getting hit we could lose much of yesterday’s gains — WSJ reports Last year the S&P 500 dropped during five of the eight days the Fed concluded a meeting, a surprisingly consistent outlier during the market’s record-breaking rally.. Single Stock Movers include FSL +8% (#s), DDD + 2%, EA + 2% (#s) — The losers are RFMD, YHOO -4% (#s), VMW -3% (#s)
The 10YY in the US is up small, and continues to consolidate around it’s 100dma. Stress remains in the Treasury Bills expiring post debt-ceiling; with March maturities still yielding 10bp over Jan’s. The DXY is slightly lower, gaining against the € but losing ground to the Yen. We do have a bid to metals, specifically Industrial one like Silver and Copper as China’s default risk fades into the sunset (for now) — while Gold is jumping 1% as it has bounced a few days off the $US1250 level. Nat gas is trekking 2% higher, while WTI is under pressure on a large inventory build in API data last night. While the highlight of the day will be the FOMC at2pm (No presser) — we have DOE data on Crude at 10:30 (looking for a 2.2mln increase), there is NO POMO today at 11, a early Treasury auction of floaters at 11:30, and New Zealand announces on rates tonight at 5. Many will have there eyes on China’s official PMI overnight, as the “flash” PMI spooked traders last week.