Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s what traders are talking about before markets open on Thursday:
Good Morning, and Happy Fed Day! Global Equities are mostly extending or holding recent gains into the decision, and there was a Seas of green in EM overnight. US Futures are starting mixed, with the S&P off 20bp, but those Russell Minis are in the green (SPY 200 and QQQ 107 are key resistance level strikes we have been unable to breach meaningfully yet). Over in Europe, the DAX is up 40bp in average volume, as Fins and Tech lead Frankfurt to the upside, while Energy and Materials are seeing profit-taking. Over in Asia, despite Shanghai losing 2%, the bulls were firmly in charge: Japan rallied 1.4% after worse than expected trade data got Doves buying; Aussie jumped 1% on the back of energy stocks — and we had another strong move in Emerging market stocks, with India, Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia all adding 1%+. We do have the gamma pulls of Options Expiry (Quad in US, Tripe in EU) in play into tomorrow. Overnight the Swissies and Indonesia hold rates steady as expected.
Treasuries are finding buyers early, with the US 10YY off 2bp after failing to breach 2.3% in the overnight. As we drift toward the FOMC decision, Fed Funds rest at a 32% chance of liftoff today — but most polls taken by global papers say it is “too close to call” — and that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY rests at 80bp, on 4Y+ highs. The $US is continuing its retreat it started yesterday, losing ground to Euro and Yen — but that Weak Japanese data is spooking growth a bit, and coupled with the week’s sharp move, we are seeing the Aussie$ retreat. Most industrial commodities are under pressure despite the $US tailwind, with weak Asian data knocking Brent off 1.5% after yesterday’s sharp upward move — but most action was in the Copper complex: The massive Chile earthquake has knocked out some copper mines, initially sending prices to 2M highs — but sellers emerged and have clubbed the red metal back into the ground.
At 8:30, we get Weekly Jobless Claims and Housing Starts for August — followed by the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook at 10, and the Natty gas Storage Data at 10:30 (estimates for a 70-74 Bcf injection). At 2pm, all eyes turn to Washington as FOMC Headlines and Fresh forecasts (Dot Plot) will hit, followed by a Yellen presser at 2:30. On Capitol Hill, at 10 House Energy and Commerce Cmte marks up bill lifting crude oil export ban and House Financial Services Cmte holds a hearing on Dodd-Frank Act.
Global Headlines into Janet’s main event:
- India’s Economic Times: Even if Fed hikes rates, it will not spook D-St much
- WSJ: Rate Increases Help Banks First
- Canada’s FP: Why investors shouldn’t fear a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike
- Sydney Morning Herald: Fed rate rise? No worries, as ASX rallies
- FT: Stocks steady ahead of Fed rates decision
- Reuters: Global stocks at three-week highs as Fed decision looms
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