Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about this morning:
Morning! US Futures starting weaker this AM, down 40bp but off the lowest levels of the day — This follows weakness overseas, with the epicentre for the bears being in China. Shanghai staged a radlly from lows to close down 2.9%, but that ChiNext hit for almost 7% as the PBOC guided the Renminbi lower again. After the close China cut their RRR, helping global equities bounce from lows. The DAX is down 1% as “Brexit” fears were amplified at the end of the G20, helping increase the global angst — Banks are your leaders to downside in Europe and London as the British Pound takes out 7Y lows. Overall volumes are very light, with most EU exchanges 30%+ lower than 20day turnover averages. Materials acting well overseas, with Miners up 4%+ in London tho. Elsewhere in Asia, Nikkei lost 1% despite Nissan jumping 12% as Japanese retail sales disappointed – India closed down 60bp as their Budget was released, and a late selloff in the banks pressed Aussie to unch.
Havens in favour as Gold jumps 1% and Treasuries get bid, with the US 10YY back under 1.75% early. The Dollar is ripping higher as Euro breaks down on weak EU inflation data and lower retail sales from Germany, while the $/Y falls back under 113. We have a mixed picture in metals, with Zinc, Gold and Platinum 1%+ higher today, and copper drifting around unch. Shorts in the Oil patch watching as the complex rests near unch into Brent Expiry later today, while Natty gas is getting demolished again for 5%+ as the bears continue to focus on warm weather in the States, coupled with chatter that Russia is staging a “OPEC style” attack on US Natty Exports.
Busy day of catalysts begins this “Jobs Week” in the States — Starting with ISM Milwaukee at 9, followed by the 9:45 headlines of the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index (Released 9:43 for paying subs) — At 10 we get Pending Home Sales for January, with Dallas Fed Manf. Activity at 10:30. At 2 the EIA releases Petroleum Supply Monthly w/ Dec. U.S. production, also releases crude imports from Persian Gulf, and at 2:30 Spot Brent and Gasoline Contracts Expire when the NYMEX closes. We get Agricultural Prices at 3, and then the US Treasury releases the Foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities at 4pm. At 11:30 tonight, Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Economy and Policy in Hangzhou. We should be seeing heavy headlines in the Technology and Metals/Mining sector, as heavy sell-side conferences continue today.
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