From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are starting Friday off in a great mood as PBOC comments soothe, but futures have paired about ½ their early 1% gains as Oil has retreated from a overnight 3% spike. Technicians are all bulled up this AM, as SPX and WTI back over 50dmas, with the Spoos taking out the top of a 2month trading range. I’d expect a re-test of these levels. The DAX is adding 1.5% as Energy stocks rally, but Airlines are the outlier to the downside as IAG #s disappoint. In London, the FTSE is adding 1% despite Royal Bank of Scotland having worst day in 4 years on #s as the Miners are in rally mode. Volumes across the continent are very light tho, with most exchanges trading 20%+ light to recent trends. In Asia, China recovered 1% of yesterday’s 6%+ smackdown, but Hang Seng surged almost 3% on a surge in Energy stocks. Aussie closed unch, with all focus was on a 10% intraday whipsaw in Woolies — and the Nikkei ripped 2% higher on the open, but weakened toward unch as the Yen gathered upward mojo while Sharp got crushed and Nintendo #s disappointed.
Much of the impetus is coming from the G20, where Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, says Beijing “still has some monetary policy space and multiple policy instruments” available to support its economy. That said, Havens are coming back into favour as Oil continues to retreat from overnight peaks, driving Germany’s 10YY in the red with the US just behind. The Euro was hit as Economic sentiment fell by more than expected, while $/Y continues to fall from 113. Despite the $ stronger, peeps shud take note that Gold continues its upward trajectory, while China comments have a sharp bid under Copper to start today. Much of Oil’s overnight spike was attributed to short positions being closed ahead of Brent’s expiry on Monday. Natty gas continues to fall as headlines speculate on a “OPEC Style” Russian Assault on US Natty gas exports.
Ahead of us today, at 8:30 we get US Q4 GDP (2nd Estimate); Advance Goods Trade Balance, ahead of a dump at 10 with Personal Income and Spending, U. of Mich. Sentiment and PCE released. At 1pm attention turns to the Baker Hughes Rig Count, ahead of ECB’s Peter Praet speaking in NYC at 1:30. 3:30 brings us release of the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders” data. In Politico world, Vice President Joe Biden participates in discussion of ”cancer moonshot” research initiative at Huntsman Cancer Institute in Salt Lake City, Utah at 12:30, while President Obama delivers remarks at battery maker Saft America’s Jacksonville, Fla. factory on progress of U.S. economy at 1:55. Expect a deluge of headers from the world’s central bankers coming from the G20 in Shanghai.
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