Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a brief guide to what traders are talking about at the start of the week:
Good Morning! US Futures are higher and thru Friday’s peaks, led by a 30bp in Nasdaq as FB, AAPL, SUNE and Biotechs rally early. It was mostly a sea of Green over in Europe, despite the French Far-Right winning the Vote In Regional Elections. The DAX is up 2% as Consumer Discretionary, Financials and Sharp gains in Healthcare propel despite German industrial production coming in weaker. The FTSE is only up 40bp into the BoE later this week as Energy Stocks are hit sharply across UK and Europe. Over in Asia, The Shanghai Composite added small as brokers and banks continue to weaken on graft headlines — Hong Kong lost 15bp as we await Heavy Chinese data due later in the week — The Nikkei added 1% and Aussie was basically flat — but Emerging Markets continued to show angst into the Fed liftoff later this week as the BIS warns on impacts.
The US 10YY is flat and resting on lows of the overnight, as heavy buyers of Bunds have materialised, helping push German Yields down 5bp. Fed Funds have firmed to nearly a 80% chance of liftoff, while that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY remains just under 1%. The $ is gaining sharply against the basket this AM, with the Cover over (for now) in Euros, and Commodity Currencies break lower. Despite the strong $, Gold is holding the bulk of Friday’s gains, and Silver and Nickel remain in the green. The Energy complex is continuing it’s downward trajectory — with Oil still under pressure from the OPEC meeting, losing 2%+ and thru Friday’s lows, while Natty Gas gets hit for 3% on headlines of massive stockpiles. The Softs are all mixed, with Wheat shrugging off the front page of WSJ to gain 1%, while Corn drops 50bp+ early.
Today at 9:45, the ECB Publishes Weekly and Monthly QE Details, while at 10am Mark Carney Testifies at European Parliament’s ECON committee right when he Labour Market Conditions Index hits in the USA. At 12:30, the sole FOMC speaker of the week appears, with Fed’s Bullard (2016 voter) talking on Monetary Policy. At3pm we get Consumer Credit in the USA. Down in Washington, Congress Turns Attention to Spending Bill (Friday deadline), and at 2pm Transportation Sec. Anthony Foxx to make a funding announcement to promote innovation.