Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super quick guide to what traders are talking about before the opening bell on Thursday:
Good Morning! US Futures are in rally mode, with the S&P up 30bp but off overnight highs. This is despite a sea of red over in Europe, which finds the DAX off 15bp, with only Healthcare in the green early. The FTSE is off 45bp, weighed down by Banks and Energy companies — but the Miners are acting better as Glencore raises their debt reduction target, stock leaps 10%+. Over in Asia, China/HK initially higher on reports of IPO reform but rolled over on little news, losing ~50bp. The Nikkei continued its slide from the 200dma, losing 1.3% as exporters were whacked on the surging Yen — while Strong Aussie jobs data reduced chance of another easing of monetary policy, hitting the banks and leaving Sydney 90bp lower. There was a slight bounce in Asian Emerging markets, but watch LatAm as the Petrobras Downgrade and continued impeachment headers spook flows.
The US 10YY is unchanged, bouncing from 2.21% a few times in the overnight, while those Fed Funds remain near a 80% chance of liftoff In less than a week. The $ is recovering against yesterday’s short-covering IFO induced surge of Euros, with the common currency reversing from its 200dma overnight. The Swiss Central Bank lewd rates unch, but stressed it still thought the franc was too strong, while the A$ is flying on the jobs print, and hawkish headlines has the Kiwi$ running as well. Most metals are under pressure, while headlines that OPEC Raises Oil Output to 3 1/2-Yr High has hit WTI into the red and a test of yesterday’s lows — Brent is faring a bit better into tomorrow’s expiry — with the spot contract continuing to hold $40 in early trade. Almost all the “softs” are under pressure, still reeling from WASDE headlines yesterday.
Ahead of us today, we have the last IPO of 2015, Atlassian (TEAM), priced at $21, above prior ranges of $16.50 to $18.50 and $19 to $20. The BoE just stayed unchanged, so we look towards US data which sees Weekly Jobless Claims and the Import Price Index at 8:30. Natty gas Inventory data hits at 10:30, and at 12 we get the US Household Change in Net Worth. At 1pm the US Treasury is auctioning off $13B in 30Ys, just ahead of the Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm. Down in Washington, at 10am House and Senate Democrats hold event on legislation they say could curb gun violence, while the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Cmte holds hearing on terrorism and global oil markets — at 11am Obama delivers remarks, signs Every Student Succeeds Act.
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