Dave Lutz, head of Exchange Traded Funds at JonesTrading, has a brief overview of what traders are watching on Monday.
- Stocks are rallying big into election day, and will break a nine-day losing streak if they close higher on Monday. On Sunday, the FBI said it found no reason to charge Hillary Clinton after its review of the new emails found in relation to her use of a private server.
- The Mexican peso surged 2% on this news Sunday. The currency has become a gauge of Donald Trump’s winning prospects, given his tough talk on trade and immigration with Mexico.
- The economic-data calendar is light. The Labour Market Conditions Index will cross at 10 a.m. ET, and September consumer credit at 3 p.m.
Good Morning! Massive Relief rally as we head into Election Tuesday, as the S&P rallies 1.3%, recouping 1/3 of what they have lost during this 9day losing Streak. Smalls are acting even better, with the Russell jumping nearly 2% as Biotech is marked up sharply. All the buy tickets flowing in from Euroland, where the DAX is up 1.6%, led by a big rally in the Financials with banks acting well on HSBC #s. No Sector is in the red, but Volumes across the continent are light, with most exchanges 20% below trend. The FTSE is up 1.5% as mining companies snap a 4day losing streak. Over in Asia, Nikkei gained 1.6% as the Yen fell, Aussie climbed 1.4% in its best session since July, Hang Seng gained 80bp despite the whack in property Stocks, while Shanghai climbed small.
The US 10YY is up 3bp early, but coming off the highs of the session as investors sell the “Havens” — The Dollar has a bid to it, as Weak German Retail Sales weigh on Euro — Pound reverses some of last week’s surge, and the Yen falls — driving the $/Y back over 104. Eyes on the Peso, which has surged 2%+ this AM on the Comey headers. Industrial commods are acting well — with Ore jumping in China, driving steel prices to 2Y highs. Nickel, Zinc and Copper all up 1%+, while a reversal of safety weighs on Gold. Headers about a Oklahoma Quake have the WTI complex snapping it’s losing streak, while the Cold Weather has Natty up nearly 3% early. Softs look bid across the board early.
Relatively quiet day of Catalysts as we endure a slew of Election Headers — We have David Tepper at 8am on CNBC — at 10am we get the US Labour Market Conditions Index Change — and at 3pm US Consumer Credit hits. Myriad of Sell-Side conferences this week, kicking off with the Baird Global Industrial Conf; the Bernstein Technology Innovation Summit, and the Credit Suisse Health Care Conference.