From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures trying to rebound from their biggest 2-day loss since last August, with the S&P up 1% and back over the 200dma — but remains to be seen whether this is “Turnaround Tuesday” or a “dead cat” bounce (Feeling like the latter early). The DAX is up 2% and FTSE 2.5% on the back of a Sharp rally in Financials — Barc, Lloyds, Credit Ag, UniCredit and BNP all up 5%+. Italian Bank Index was up 9%, but has since surrendered ½ of those gains, while the UK Builders have come in well off opening highs. Volumes remain heavy across the continent, with most exchanges trading 50%+ heavier than normal. Pretty quiet in Asia, with China adding small, while our desk in Hawaii noted Nikkei dipped early then bounced off 15k on no news to close near flat. South Korea was up 50bp and Indonesia 1% as both countries move toward fiscal stimulus to support their economies.
Havens are in reverse — Gold off 1% while Treasury Yields up a tepid 2bp as German Bunds remain deep in negative territory and Yields on Japanese and Aussie government bonds hit record lows. Sterling is bouncing from 30Y lows, and Euro is making headways as well, hitting the DXY. The Weaker $ has commodities ripping, especially the Industrial ones — with Copper, Zinc and Nickel all 2%+ higher. The Oil complex is rebounding from the recent smackdown — with WTI up 2.6% as headlines about an impending Norway Strike add to the tailwinds. Softs are all ripping, with Corn and Soybeans both adding 2%+.
Ahead of us today, we get the 3rd estimate GDP for Q1 and Core PCE at 8:30 – Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index at 8:55 – S&P/Case-Shiller at 9 – Consumer Confidence Index; Richmond Fed Index at 10 — and at 2:30 Spot Natty Contracts Roll. We get the API data after the close, Genscape thinking a 1.3mm draw from Cushing, while Bloomie saying 2.5mm draw overall. Tonight at 7, Fed’s Powell Speaks in Chicago.
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