Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Final ipsos poll came out Remain 52%, Leave 48% and spiked futures earlier — S&P up 1%, Russell 1.5% as Biotech jumps early. DAX was up as much as 2%, 3-week high. Commodity stocks and banks leading.
- Seeing Heavy dumping of havens — Bunds and Treasuries are seeing yields jump 6bp, Gold continues to retreat.
- DXY getting slammed against Pound and Euro – Sterling hits highest point of the year as bookies see “remain” taking it — Key to watch in the headline squall we have been enduring. Risk on seeing emerging-market currencies ripping higher.
- But Volumes light — “Share trading across Europe was just a third of its normal level and two-thirds lower than average on the UK’s FTSE.”
Today we get Architecture Billings Index and the Fed’s Bank Stress Test results (Initial Results — CCAR June 29th). Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index and Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 – Markit US Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 – New Home Sales for May and US Leading Index at 10 – Natty Gas Inventory data at 10:30, and Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity at 11. Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in New York at 7pm.
BREXIT key times (in ET):
- 5pm – Polling closes – Media “Blackout” Ends; Sky News announces the YouGov Poll prediction
- 7:30pm — Results begin to be reported for a small number of councils
- 9:00pm — First big wave of results with 22 councils expected around this time
- 10:00pm – Lancaster vote could be proxy for overall result.
- 11:00pm — The largest wave of results with 88 councils expected to report
- 12:00 – About 80% of counting areas have reported results
- 1:00am — Any clear winner likely reported by now over media channels
- 2 am – Count Ends
- 2-4am — Official result will be called in Manchester, “around breakfast time”, according to the electoral commission