Via Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here’s a super-quick guide to what traders are talking about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are on overnight highs, gaining 25bp in the early hours as UK bookmakers bet heavily “remain” wins. EU markets are all breaking north, adding to their best 3days since August — The DAX is up 1.2% as Basic resource stocks and Financials rally again. FTSE is lagging the move despite the jump in the Miners, with “Bond Proxies” and Safety sectors underperforming. Volumes are tepid, with most exchanges trading 10-20% light. Over in Asia, Nikkei lost 60bp as Yen gained steam – Shanghai added 1% after lagging this week — Aussie lost small as discretionary faltered, while EM rallies for a 4th day in a row. Really No volume in Asia — Most markets 20% light to trends.
The 10YY is off small, despite German Yields leaking a touch higher — as we await Yellen at the House (While speech the same, Q&A from Maxine always proves interesting). Focus remains on the Pound, which is holding gains and over the 200dma against the $ as Betfair says 80% of £1M bet during/immediately after Tuesday’s debate was on “Remain”. The DXY is weaker as Pound, Euro and Yen gain, causing a tailwind for commodities. Metals remain mixed, with Industrials reacting to Iron ore rising to a one-month high, climbing nearly 4% in China, getting a bid under Zinc, Nickel and Copper — While Gold and Silver remain under pressure as havens reverse. WTI is up small, making gains over $50 as API showed triple the draw of 1.7 million expected ahead of DoE today. Softs are higher, with Corn trying to rebound from yesterdays near 6% smackdown.
Ahead of us today, we get FHFA House Price Index at 9 — then Yellen hits the hill at 10am for House testimony, right when EU Consumer Confidence and US Existing Home Sales for May hit. At 10:30, we get DoE data — Last night API showed a Inventory draw -5.2mm (Street thought -1.5mm), Gasoline -1.4mm (Platts thot -800k), and Cushing -1.3mm (Street thot 50k). We then have heavy supply, with a US Auction of 30Y TIPs and $13B in 2Y Floaters at 11:30, Canada to Sell 10-Year Bonds at 12, and the US Treasury auctions off $28 Bln 7-Year Notes at 1. At 2:30, Fed’s Powell (Voter, Neutral) Makes Introductory Remarks at Panel in New York.
For Brexit, There are four opinion polls reportedly due out today (BST): ~16:30 (11:30ET) – Opinium (Online), ~22:00 (5pmET) – ComRes (Phone) , and No Scheduled time for TNS/YouGov (Online)